经济波动、预防性储蓄动机与消费过度敏感性

Economic Fluctuations,Precautionary Saving Motive and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption

本文分析了经济波动对我国居民消费过度敏感性的影响及机制。结果表明,经济波动显著影响了消费过度敏感性,经济收缩会增强消费过度敏感性,经济扩张会减弱消费过度敏感性,且消费过度敏感性对经济收缩的反应更敏感。进一步机制检验表明,预防性储蓄动机是经济波动影响消费过度敏感性的重要渠道。本文结论具有两方面意义:第一,建立了经济波动与消费过度敏感性之间的联系,有助于理解消费过度敏感性的决定因素;第二,为制定扩大内需尤其是启动居民消费政策提供了启示,即政策制定者应当充分意识到消费过度敏感性的逆周期特点,尤其是在经济收缩期应当对不确定性的累积过程给予高度关注。

This paper investigates the impact of economic fluctuations on the degree of excess sensitivity of Chinese private consumption and the underlying mechanisms.The results show that economic contraction increases the degree of excess sensitivity of consumption,while economic expansion reduces the degree of excess sensitivity of consumption,and the consumption is more sensitive to economic contraction.Further analysis shows that economic fluctuations have a significant influence on excess sensitivity of consumption through precautionary saving motives.The results not only help to understand the determinants of excess sensitivity of consumption,but also have important policy implications to stimulate Chinese consumption and expand domestic demand.The policymakers should be aware of the counter-cyclical characteristic of excess sensitivity of consumption and pay enough attention to the accumulation of uncertainty during economic contraction.