国际旅游岛战略实施对海南岛城镇建设用地扩张的净效应与作用机理分析

Net Effect and Mechanism Analysis of Hainan International Tourism Island Construction on Urban Construction Land Expansion

研究目的:评估国际旅游岛战略实施对海南岛城镇建设用地扩张的净效应,并分析其作用机理。研究方法:断点回归与地理探测器。研究结果:(1)国际旅游岛战略实施使全岛城镇建设用地扩张的速度提高了30%左右,且主要集中在战略实施的前4年,但存在高估的可能;(2)国际旅游岛战略实施对全岛各市县城镇建设用地扩张的影响存在地区差异,社会经济发展水平越高的地区其城镇建设用地扩张规模更大;(3)国际旅游岛战略实施对全岛城镇建设用地扩张的驱动存在阶段性变化,前期主要是投资和产业发展驱动,后期则与城镇人口增长密切相关,但在开发国际化旅游市场的目标实施上不甚理想。研究结论:为揭示区域发展战略实施对城镇建设用地扩张的作用机理与效果提供了新的思路借鉴,能够为协调区域发展战略的实施及城镇建设用地扩张的有效治理提供相关决策支撑。

The purposes of this paper are to measure the net effect of Hainan International Tourism Island strategy on urban construction land expansion,and to analyze its mechanism.The methods include regression discontinuity design and GeoDetector.The results show that:1)the strategy has increased the whole island’s urban expansion rate by 30%,and it mainly affects the first four years of the implementation of the strategy,but there is a possibility of overestimation.2)The impact of the strategy on different counties is various.The higher the county’s socio-economic development level is,the more significant the expansion of urban construction land is.3)The driving factors of the International Tourism Island strategy on urban construction land expansion are different in different stages.In the early stage,investment and industrial development are significant driving factors,while population growth is playing an important role in the latter period,but the implementation of the goal of developing the international tourism market is not ideal.In conclusion,this study provides a new idea for revealing the mechanism and effect of regional development strategy implementation on urban construction land expansion,and can further propose relevant decision support for coordinating the implementation of coordinated regional development strategies and effective governance of urban construction land expansion.