基于生态足迹的山东省可持续发展分析

Analysis on the sustainable development of Shandong Province based on the ecological footprint

山东省可持续发展能力关系到其未来的发展方向及潜力。本文利用生态足迹模型,从生态承载力、生态足迹、生态盈余(赤字)、万元GDP足迹、生态压力等多个角度对山东省2011—2019年间的最新可持续发展状况及发展趋势做了定量分析,并与其他部分省份做了横向比较,以期为山东省实现历史性跨越提供决策依据。结果显示:(1)9年来,山东省人均生态承载力围绕0.510 hm^(2)/cap出现波动,总体呈现下降趋势;人均生态足迹呈现“Λ”型发展趋势,在2015年达最高点5.371 hm^(2)/cap;生态盈亏一直处于生态赤字状态,变化趋势和人均生态足迹正好相反,呈现“Ⅴ”型发展趋势;万元GDP的生态足迹出现逐年下降趋势,由2011年的1.177 hm^(2)/万元下降至2019年的0.709 hm^(2)/万元;生态压力指数一路攀升,从2011年的9.311上升到2018年的10.529,2019年有小幅度下降,表明生态安全形势越来越严峻。(2)从各地类变化趋势来看,人均生态承载力分布不均衡,耕地比例最大,其次是建设用地,其他均不足2%;除了林地维持稳定、建设用地一直增加外,其他地类均处于下降趋势。人均生态足迹分布也不均衡,牧草地和化石能源用地占比最大,并呈现先上升后下降、整体上升的变化趋势;其次是耕地,呈现曲折的波动变化趋势;最后依次是水域、林地、园地和建设用地;建设用地一直在增加,其他变化相对稳定。(3)从各地类结构来看,牧草地供需矛盾最突出;其次化石能源用地和耕地;建设用地持续出现生态盈余、呈现上升趋势,生态压力指数小于1;其他地类均出现“Ⅴ”型持续生态赤字,生态压力已经影响到了生态安全,生态系统平衡受到严重威胁。(4)从与其他个别省份横向比较来看,2011年山东省万元GDP生态足迹比上海市低,比西藏自治区和四川省要高,比全国平均水平、广东省、安徽省、江西省、湖南省、湖北省、山西省、河南省要高。最后,根据山东省可持续发展状况提出远景目标建议。

The sustainable development capacity of Shandong province is related to its future development direction and potential.This paper used the ecological footprint model,from the ecological carrying capacity,ecological footprint,ecological surplus(deficit),ten thousand yuan GDP footprint,and ecological pressure,to carry out the quantitative analysis on the sustainable development and development trend of 2011-2019 in Shandong province,and made a horizontal comparison with other provinces,in order to provide decision basis for achieving historic leap in Shandong province.Results showed that,(1)For 9 years,the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Shandong province fluctuated around 0.510 hm^(2)/cap,the overall was in a downward trend;The per capita ecological footprint shows a"Λ"type development trend,the peak was at 5.371 hm^(2)/cap;Ecological profit and loss has always been in an ecological deficit state,its change trend is on the opposite of the per capita ecological footprint,presenting the"V"type;The ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan of GDP has been declining year by year,from 1.177×10^(-4) hm^(2)/yuan in 2011 to 0.709×10^(-4) hm^(2)/yuan in 2019;The ecological pressure index has been climbing up,from 9.311 in 2011 to 10.529 in 2018,having a small decline in 2019,indicating that the ecological security is becoming increasingly severe.(2)From the perspective of change of land use,the distribution of per capita ecological carrying capacity is uneven,with the largest proportion of arable land,followed by construction land,and the rest are less than 2%;except for the stability of woodland and the increase of construction land,other lands were in a downward trend.The per capita ecological footprint distribution is also uneven,pasture and fossil energy land occupied the largest proportion,and second was cultivated land,followed by water and woodland,garden and construction land.(3)From the perspective of the structure of land types,the contradiction between supply and demand of grassland is the most prominent,followed by fossil energy land and cultivated land;construction land continues to show an ecological surplus,showing an upward trend,and the ecological pressure index is less than 1;other land types have a"V"type of sustainable ecological deficit and ecological pressure have affected ecological security,and the balance of the ecosystem has been seriously threatened.(4)In terms of horizontal comparison with other provinces,in 2011,the ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP in Shandong Province was lower than that of Shanghai,higher than that of Tibet Autonomous Region and Sichuan Province,and higher than that of the whole country average,Guangdong Province,Anhui Province,Jiangxi Province,Hunan Province,and Hubei Province,Shanxi Province and Henan Province.Finally,this paper proposes long-term goals and suggestions for the sustainable development of Shandong Province.