基于极限位移准则和变形预测的滑坡变形潜势分析

Analysis of Landslide Deformation Potential Based on Limit Displacement Criterion and Deformation Prediction

为准确掌握库区滑坡变形潜势,在变形监测成果统计基础上,首先利用极限位移准则开展滑坡现状变形潜势分析;然后以相关向量机为理论基础,通过优化处理保证其参数最优性,构建滑坡变形预测模型,并以预测结果开展滑坡变形潜势的发展趋势评价;最后结合两种分析结果,实现滑坡综合变形潜势分析。结果表明,不同监测点的现状变形潜势状态存在一定差异,由不利原则可知,现状变形潜势等级为Ⅳ级,潜势程度属严重状态;滑坡变形仍会进一步增加,变形潜势趋于不利方向发展。综合两种分析结果可知,滑坡变形潜势处于不利状态,后期失稳可能性较大,应加强灾害防治,避免成灾损失。

To accurately grasp the landslide deformation potential in the reservoir area,based on the statistics of deformation monitoring results,we use the limit displacement criterion to analyze the landslide deformation potential.Based on the theory of relevance vector machine,we apply optimization processing to ensure the optimum parameters.We build a prediction model of landslide deformation and evaluate the development trend of landslide deformation potential based on the prediction results.Combined with results of the two analyses,we realize the comprehensive landslide deformation potential analysis.The results show that there are some differences in the deformation potential of different monitoring points.According to the disadvantage principle,the deformation potential level is grade IV,and the potential degree is serious.The deformation potential will continue to increase and tend to develop unfavorably.Based on the two analysis results,the landslide deformation potential is in a disadvantageous state,and the possibility of instability in the later period is relatively large.Therefore,disaster prevention and control should be strengthened to avoid disaster losses.