城镇住宅拆除规模测算方法及驱动因素研究

The Method of Measuring and Calculating the Scale of Urban Residential Demolition and Its Driving Factors

为促进民用建筑“四节一环保”城镇居住实有建筑面积数据获取的顺利进行,为建筑业更好推进双碳工作提供基础数据,主要基于人口普查数据同时结合中国统计年鉴数据,对全国各省市城镇住宅拆除规模的测算方法进行研究,提出较为科学的拆除面积测算方法.结合人口普查已公布数据得出每年的城镇住宅拆除率在2.478%.筛选出四类社会经济因素与省际间拆除率差异进行相关性分析,结果分析表明,随着拆除成本的提高以及国家对于城镇住宅房价的控制,大拆大建的城市住宅更新模式逐渐退出市场,但由于城镇人口及人均地区生产总值的持续增长,未来城镇住宅拆除规模呈现总数上升,增速下降的趋势.

In order to promote the smooth progress of the construction area data acquisition in the“four-conserving and one environmental protection”urban residence,and to better promote the“two-carbon”work for the construction industry,based on the census data and China’s statistical yearbook data,this paper studies the measurement method of urban residential demolition scale in various provinces and municipalities in the country,and proposes a more scientific dismantling area calculation method.The annual urban residential demolition rate is 2.478%according to the population census data.Correlation analysis of four types of social economic factors and provincial demolition rates is carried out.The results show that with the improvement of demolition costs and the national control of urban residential housing prices,the urban residential update mode of the“big demolition and construction”is gradually withdrawn from the market.However,due to the continued growth of the total and per capita production value of urban population,the total number of housing demolitions in the future urban residential demolition would still increase,while the growth rate would decline.