基于集中度和圆形分布法分析山东省青岛市2017-2020年媒介蚊虫季节性特征

Analysis of seasonal characteristics of mosquito vectors in Qingdao city of Shandong province during 2017 and 2020 by the concentration and circular distribution method

目的探究集中度和圆形分布法在媒介蚊虫季节消长趋势分析中的应用,为蚊虫及蚊媒传染病风险评估、监测预警和精准防控提供科学依据。方法选取青岛市蚊虫国家级监测点2017-2020年成蚊监测数据,应用集中度法分析成蚊消长趋势季节性强弱,圆形分布法分析季节消长高峰日和高峰期,Watson-William检验法比较各年度季节消长高峰。结果青岛市2017-2020年各月成蚊监测数集中度(M)值为0.8074,成蚊消长趋势有很强的季节性;圆形分布集中趋势值γ=0.8051,平均角(α)=223.2981°,角离差(S)=37.7281°,雷氏检验Z值为19951.328,P<0.01,即成蚊季节消长高峰日为8月15日,高峰期为7月8日-9月22日。青岛市2017-2020年各年的平均角α之间的差异有统计学意义(F=282.922,P<0.01),即各年度季节消长高峰不同。结论青岛市2017-2020年成蚊消长趋势有很强的季节性特征,7-9月为高峰期,各年度高峰时间不同。

Objective To explore the application of the concentration degree method and circular distribution method in analyzing the seasonal characteristics of mosquitoes,and to provide a scientific basis for risk evaluation,surveillance,warning,and precise control of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases.Methods Surveillance data of adult mosquitoes at national mosquito surveillance sites in Qingdao from 2017 to 2020 were selected to analyze the magnitude of seasonality using the concentration degree method,the peak day and peak period of seasonal fluctuations using the circular distribution method,and the seasonal fluctuation peaks of each year using the Watson-William test.Results The concentration degree(M)of monthly surveillance data of adult mosquitoes in Qingdao,2017-2020 was 0.8074,indicating strong seasonal fluctuations of adult mosquitoes.The circular distribution analysis showed that the central tendency(γ)was 0.8051,the average angle(α)was 223.2981°,the angular deviation(S)was 37.7281°,and Z value for the Rayleigh’s test was 19951.328(P<0.01),indicating that the peak day was on August 15,and the peak period was from July 8 to September 22.There was a statistical difference in the average angle from 2017 to 2020(F=282.922,P<0.01),indicating that the peak of seasonal changes was different in different years.Conclusion Adult mosquitoes show strong seasonal fluctuations in Qingdao from 2017 to 2020,peaking during July to September.The peak of seasonal changes varies from year to year.