气候变化对我国赤豆螺适生区范围的影响研究

Effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Bithynia fuchsiana habitats in China

目的分析环境因子对赤豆螺分布的影响,预估当前和2050年代表性浓度路径(RCP)气候情景下赤豆螺在我国的分布范围。方法在中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普中文科技期刊数据库、中国生物医学文献数据库及PubMed、Web of Science英文数据库中检索国内外公开发表的赤豆螺相关文献,检索日期为2000年1月1日至2021年7月15日,从文献中提取赤豆螺在我国的分布点信息,结合环境因子数据,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)分析环境因子对赤豆螺分布的影响,并预估赤豆螺在我国的适生区范围。结果各环境因子中,海拔、最干月降水量、昼夜温差月均值和归一化水体指数对赤豆螺分布的影响较大,贡献率分别为30.30%、26.90%、12.40%和12.20%。当前气候条件下,我国赤豆螺的适生区面积为244.23万km^(2),其中,高适生区35.60万km^(2),中适生区70.57万km^(2),低适生区138.06万km^(2)。RCP 4.5气候情景下,2050年赤豆螺在我国的适生区范围将向北扩大,适生区面积新增45.05万km^(2)。结论赤豆螺在我国的分布范围受海拔影响较大,未来气候变化将使我国赤豆螺的分布范围扩大。

Objective To analyze the environmental factors that affect the distribution of Bithynia fuchsiana and to project the distribution of B.fuchsiana in China in the current climate and climate in 2050.Methods Publications on B.fuchsiana from January 1,2000 to July 15,2021 were retrieved from CNKI,Wanfang Data,VIP Data,CBMdisc,PubMed,and Web of Science.Information about the distribution of B.fuchsiana in China and environmental factors was obtained.A maximum entropy model was used to analyze the influences of environmental factors on the distribution of B.fuchsiana and to project its suitable habitats in China.Results Among the environmental factors,elevation(30.30%),precipitation in the driest month(26.90%),mean monthly temperature range(12.40%)and normalized difference water index(12.20%)were the key factors affecting the distribution of B.fuchsiana.Currently,the suitable habitat area of B.fuchsiana was 2442.30 thousand km^(2)in China,including highly suitable area(356.00 thousand km^(2)),moderately suitable area(705.70 thousand km^(2))and marginally suitable area(1380.60 thousand km^(2)).The suitable habitats would expand to the north and increase by 450.50 thousand km^(2)under the representative concentration path(RCP)4.5 emissions scenario in 2050.Conclusion Altitude is the main factor affecting the distribution of B.fuchsiana,and in the future climate change would expand the distribution of B.fuchsiana in China.