黄河流域异质性环境规制对生态福利绩效作用机理及效应研究

Study on the Mechanism and Effects of Heterogeneous Environmental Regulations on Ecological Welfare Performance in the Yellow River Basin

为测度黄河流域绿色低碳高质量发展现状及环境规制效果,文章分析了环境规制对生态福利绩效的作用机理并提出相应假设,基于黄河流域沿线9省(区)面板数据,在测算生态福利绩效基础上采用PSTR模型研究了不同类型环境规制对生态福利绩效的非线性影响,进一步选择中介效应模型检验产业结构升级的间接传导作用。结果显示:(1)2009-2019年黄河流域沿线9省(区)生态福利绩效均值处于非有效状态,分区域呈现下游>中游>上游的分布格局;核密度图显示2015年后黄河流域沿线9省(区)之间两极化趋势有所减弱。(2)命令控制型、市场激励型环境规制对生态福利绩效均存在非线性影响,但两者作用效果不同,其中市场激励型环境规制对生态福利绩效的促进作用更显著。(3)间接传导作用结果显示,产业结构升级在较低强度命令控制型环境规制对生态福利绩效的作用中存在遮掩效应。(4)稳健性检验结果表明,实证结果稳健,且人均森林面积增加可显著促进生态福利绩效提升。基于结论提出建议:一是充分发挥森林涵养水源作用,协调各省生态投入要素;二是统筹沿线资源,减少生态福利区域差异;三是把握环境规制强度阈值,完善环境规制措施;四是在保证命令控制型环境规制强制作用的同时,向市场激励型环境规制适当倾斜;五是稳步提升森林覆盖率,合理规划并有序推进城市公园建设。

In order to measure the current status of green, low-carbon and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin and the effect of environmental regulations, this paper analyzed the mechanism of environmental regulation on ecological welfare performance and put forward corresponding hypotheses. Based on the panel data of 9 provinces(regions) along the Yellow River Basin, on the basis of measuring the ecological welfare performance, the PSTR model was used to study the nonlinear impact of different types of environmental regulations on the ecological welfare performance. The mediation effect model was further selected to test the indirect transmission effect of industrial structure upgrading. The results showed that:(1) The average value of the ecological welfare performance of 9 provinces(regions) along the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2019 was in an ineffective state, and the distribution pattern of downstream > midstream > upstream was shown in sub-regions. The nuclear density map shows that the polarization trend among the9 provinces(regions) along the Yellow River Basin has weakened after 2015.(2) Command-control and market-incentive environmental regulations had non-linear effects on ecological welfare performance, but the effects of the two were different. Among them,market-incentive environmental regulations had a more significant role in promoting ecological welfare performance.(3) The results of indirect conduction showed that the upgrading of industrial structure had a masking effect on the effect of lower-intensity command-and-control environmental regulations on ecological welfare performance.(4) The results of robustness test showed that the empirical results were robust, and the per capita forest area could significantly improve the ecological welfare performance. Based on the conclusions, the following suggestions were put forward. Firstly, to give full play to the role of forests in conserving water sources and coordinate the ecological input factors of various provinces. Secondly, to coordinate resources along the route to reduce regional differences in ecological welfare. Thirdly, to grasp the threshold of environmental regulation intensity and improve environmental regulation measures. Fourthly, to ensure the mandatory role of command-and-control environmental regulation. At the same time, it should be appropriately inclined to market-driven environmental regulation. Fifthly, to steadily increase the forest coverage rate, rationally plan and orderly promote the construction of urban parks.