不同发展情景下青海省土地利用布局及生物多样性变化模拟

Simulation of changes in land use distribution and biodiversity under different development scenarios in Qinghai Province

人类活动导致土地利用格局的剧烈变迁是全球生物多样性丧失的重要原因之一。为满足青海省生物多样性保护和社会经济发展对土地利用的需求,本研究依据土地利用类型/干扰强度与生物多样性的关系,制定了基线、美丽青海、智慧青海、和谐青海4种情景的设计方案,并基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型和FLUS-Biodiversity模型分别模拟至2030年、2050年时,4种情景下青海省土地利用布局及其原生群落平均物种多度(Mean Species Abundance,MSA)的空间格局演变。结果表明,青海省大部分土地利用类型在现有格局的基础上均发生较大变化。其中,基线情景(按原有发展趋势)中湿地、森林、草地的面积均有所下降,导致生物多样性恢复速度缓慢。基于自然保护和经济发展的不同权衡,美丽青海、智慧青海、和谐青海3种情景则对未来土地利用布局的优化效果较好,大量中、高强度利用的草地恢复为湿地、原生林及低强度利用的草地,部分常规农田转换为优质农田,建设用地面积减少,生物多样性因而得以较大提高。未来各情景下的青海省MSA值都能实现目标值,生物多样性完整性相对于2020年都有所增加。

Aims:Dramatic land use changes induced by intensified human activities are considered to be an important driver for the loss of biodiversity.In response to the demands of biodiversity conservation and socio-economic development of Qinghai Province for land use,this study provides a method of optimizing land use layout under different scenarios based on different conservation goals.Methods:Based on the relationships between land use type/disturbance intensity and biodiversity,this study formulated four development scenarios in Qinghai Province:Baseline scenario,Beautiful Qinghai(BQ),Intelligent Qinghai(IQ)and Harmonious Qinghai(HQ).And the land use patterns and mean species abundance(MSA)related to the local native communities of Qinghai Province in 2030 and 2050 were simulated under the four scenarios,with GeoSOS-FLUS model and FLUS-Biodiversity model,respectively.Results:Most land use types would change significantly compared to the current spatial pattern.Under Baseline scenario,the area of wetlands,forests,and grasslands would all decline by 2030 or 2050,resulting in a slow recovery of biodiversity accordingly.The other three scenarios(BQ,IQ,and HQ)would predict various optimized spatial patterns of the future land use in the next 10 or 30 years.A large portion of medium-and high-intensity grasslands would become wetlands,primary forests,or low-intensity grasslands.Part of the conventional farmlands would be converted into high-quality farmlands,and construction land area would be reduced,thus biodiversity be greatly improved.Conclusion:MSA values of the land use in Qinghai Province could achieve the target values by 2030 or 2050,and the biodiversity integrity/intactness would be increased compared with that in 2020 under all future scenarios.