1998-2018年河西走廊农业生产地区专业化时空演变分析

Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of regional specialization of agriculture in the Hexi Corridor between 1998 and 2018

运用1998-2018年农产品播种面积面板数据,计算整个河西走廊、三大流域、15个区县专业化系数和8种主要农产品地方化系数,从地区和农产品角度分析河西走廊农业生产地区专业化水平的时空格局演变,定性分析影响农业生产专业化演变的影响因素.结果表明,河西走廊初步形成了疏勒河下游棉花专业化生产区域、黑河和石羊河上游薯类专业化生产区域、黑河和石羊河中游玉米专业化生产区域,以及疏勒河中下游和黑河上游药材专业化生产区域的专业化生产格局;1998-2018年,河西走廊区域整体及各流域农业生产的地区专业化水平显著提高,专业化发展呈先明显增长、后缓慢下降的趋势;除金塔县的其余14个区县的专业化水平均提高,区域专业化水平在空间上形成从西北向东南梯度降低的格局,专业化重心整体向东南方向移动.棉花、药材和薯类地方化水平较高,除蔬菜和药材外,其他6种农产品地方化水平都在提高,但各农产品地方化发展演变趋势差异显著.定性分析表明,区域专业化发展演变是在农业资源禀赋、农业政策、市场需求、技术进步等多种因素共同作用下实现的.河西走廊应结合资源禀赋条件积极推进农业种植结构调整,推动区域土地有序流转,推广农业机械化生产,促进区域农业生产专业化发展.

To explore the current situation and impact mechanism of agricultural specialization in the inland river basins of China,and to provide a reference for the formulation of development policies,we calculated the specialization coefficients of the entire Hexi Corridor,three major river basins,15 counties/districts and 8 major agricultural products using the panel data on agricultural product areas from 1998 to2018,analyzed the temporal and spatial pattern evolution of the specialization level in the Hexi Corridor from the perspective of regions and agricultural products,and further qualitatively explored the influencing factors affecting the evolution of agricultural specialization.The results showed that the Hexi Corridor had initially formed a specialized production pattern for the production of cotton,potato,corn and medicinal herbs.The regional specialization level of agricultural production in the Hexi Corridor area as a whole and in the various river basins had increased significantly,and the development of specialization experienced first a significant growth then a slow decline;the specialization level of the other 14 districts/counties except Jinta County had increased.The regional specialization level had formed a gradient from northwest to southeast and the specialized center of gravity moved to the southeast.The level of localization of cotton,medicinal products and potatoes was relatively high.Except for vegetables and medicinal products,the localization level of the other six agricultural products was increasing,but the localized development trend for various agricultural products was significantly different.Agricultural resource endowment promoted the formation of agricultural specialization;agricultural policy,market demand,technological progress and other factors affected the development of specialization.