人民币实际汇率升值如何影响中美两国双边贸易?——基于中国企业层面数据的研究

How Does the Real Exchange Rate Appreciation of the RMB Affect Bilateral Trade Between the U.S. and China?——A Study Based on Chinese Firm-Level Data

本文首次基于企业—产品维度,研究人民币对美元实际汇率如何影响我国企业与美国双边贸易的影响。研究发现:(1)人民币汇率升值会减少中国企业对美国的出口贸易,但对进口贸易没有影响。(2)分贸易方式来看,人民币汇率升值时,一般贸易企业的出口会下降,进口会上升;加工贸易企业出口下降得更多,同时进口也会下降。(3)分行业来看,人民币汇率升值对纺织制造业、金属制造业、设备制造业的进、出口均存在抑制作用;对交通运输制造业的出口产生抑制作用,对其进口产生促进作;对其他行业的进口、出口均没有显著影响。

This paper is the first to examine how the real exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar affects the impact of bilateral trade between Chinese firms and the US based on the firm-product dimension.The study finds that(1)RMB exchange rate appreciation reduces Chinese firms’export trade with the US,but has no effect on import trade.(2)By trade mode,when the RMB exchange rate appreciates,exports of general trade enterprises will fall and imports will rise;exports of processing trade enterprises will fall more,while imports will also fall.(3)By industry,RMB exchange rate appreciation has a suppressive effect on the import and export of textile manufacturing,metal manufacturing and equipment manufacturing;it has a suppressive effect on the export of transportation manufacturing and a promotional effect on its import;it has no significant effect on the import and export of other industries.