我国地方政府财政反应函数及财政空间分析——基于跨周期调节视角

Fiscal Response Function and Fiscal Space AnaLysis of Local Governments in China——Based on a Cross-cycle Adjustment Perspective

基于政府跨期预算约束方程,本文计算了我国各省份的实际财政赤字率。以此为基础,本文利用固定效应面板数据模型对我国地方政府的财政反应函数进行估计。估计结果表明,当地方政府上期负债率上升一个百分点,其当期财政盈余率会相应下降0.05个百分点。最后,结合我国地方政府更加关注财政赤字的背景,本文以财政赤字率为标准,利用政府跨期预算方程和财政反应函数测算了各省份的财政空间。结果表明,现有财政赤字率越大的省份,其财政空间越小;当地方政府更加重视财政赤字率的动态变化时,债务利率与GDP实际增长率相差越大,财政空间表面上会越大,但更高的负债率会形成更高的利息支出,地方政府的财政状态也会更加脆弱,对外生负面冲击的抵抗力更弱。

Based on the government’s inter-temporal budget constraint equation,this paper calculates the actual fiscal deficit rate of each province in China.Based on this,this paper uses a fixed-effect panel data model to estimate the fiscal response function of local governments in China.The estimation results show that when the local government’s prior period debt ratio increases by one percentage point,its fiscal surplus ratio decreases by 0.05 percentage point.Finally,against the background that local governments in China are more concerned about fiscal deficits,this paper measures the fiscal space of each province using the government’s inter-temporal budget constraint equation and fiscal response function,using the fiscal deficit ratio as the criterion.The results show that provinces with larger existing fiscal deficit ratios have less fiscal space;when local governments pay more attention to the dynamics of fiscal deficit ratios,the greater the difference between debt interest rates and real GDP growth rates,the greater the fiscal space on the surface,but higher debt ratios lead to higher interest payments and a more fragile fiscal state for local governments,and less resistance to exogenous negative shocks.