国内国际双循环联动效应的微观机制研究

The Micro Mechanism of the Linkage Effect of Domestic and International Dual Circulation Development

在新发展格局下,如何通过内外循环的相互作用创建需求牵引供给,供给创造需求的动态平衡是亟待研究的问题。以异质企业模型为基础建立理论研究框架,从微观视角切入考察国际循环与国内循环联动效应的实现机制,并采用中介效应模型进行实证检验。结果表明,双循环联动效应具有显著的微观异质性,价格机制是内循环的调节基础,国内需求是双循环联动效应的主要协调机制。扩大国内需求和企业规模、提高进口中间品种类集约度、降低运输成本是提升外循环质量的主要实现路径。

Under the new development pattern, the problem of how to achieve the dynamic balance between creating demand to push supply and improving supply to create demand through the internal and external interaction needs to be solved urgently. Based on the enterprise heterogeneous model, a theoretical research model is constructed, and the realization mechanism of the linkage effect of the international circulation and domestic circulation is investigated from the micro perspective. An empirical test is made by using intermediate effect model. The results show that the linkage effect of the dual circulation has significant micro heterogeneity. Price mechanism is the foundation to adjust domestic circulation, and the domestic demand is the main coordinating mechanism of the linkage effect of the dual circulation. The main paths of improving the quality of international circulation are to expand domestic demand and enterprise size, improve the intensity of the types of imported intermediate products, and lower transportation costs.