交通可达性提升能促进城镇居民消费升级吗?——基于双效应ELES和空间面板分位数回归的实证分析

Can Transportation Accessibility Promote the Consumption Upgrade of Urban Residents?Empirical Analysis Based on Dual-effect ELES and Spatial Panel Quantile Regression

交通基础设施建设能否促进城镇居民消费升级,实现经济高质量发展,尚缺乏经验证据。采用中国2007—2018年的省级面板数据,基于双效应ELES模型,将居民消费分为基本品和高档品,以高档品消费占总支出之比为消费升级指标,构建空间面板分位数模型,考察交通可达性对城镇居民消费升级的影响及内在机理。研究发现,整体而言,交通可达性提升显著抑制了城镇居民消费升级;分消费群体看,交通可达性提升促进了高收入群体消费结构升级,对中低收入群体产生了抑制效应;从内部机制看,交通设施完善显著提升了住房价格,中低收入群体住房支出大幅增加,对其他消费产生挤出效应,从而导致其消费降级;在地区关联性方面,各地区间居民消费结构关联性较强,城镇居民消费结构升级具有空间溢出效应。

There is not enough empirical evidence on whether the construction of transportation infrastructure can promote the upgrading of urban residents’ consumption and achieve high-quality economic development. By using China’s provincial panel data from 2007 to 2018,the consumption of residents is divided into primary products and high-end products based on dual-effect ELES model. The ratio of high-end product consumption to total expenditure is taken as the indicator of consumption upgrading. A spatial panel quantile model is constructed to examine the impact of transportation accessibility on urban residents’ consumption upgrading and the internal mechanism. The study finds that the improvement of transportation accessibility significantly inhibited the consumption upgrading of urban residents. From the perspective of consumption groups,the improvement of transportation accessibility promoted the upgrading of the consumption structure of high-income groups. However,it has a restraining effect on low and middle-income groups. As for internal mechanisms,the improvement of transportation facilities has significantly increased housing prices,and the housing expenditure of low and middle-income groups has increased significantly. It leads to the crowding-out effect on the other consumptions,leading to the consumption downgrading of the residents. Regarding regional relevance,the consumption relevance of residents in different regions is closely related,which means the consumption structure upgrading of urban residents has spatial spillover effects.