地方政府债务对全要素生产率的影响研究

The Impact of Local Government Debt on Total Factor Productivity

提高全要素生产率是实现经济高质量发展的关键途径,对其影响因素的研究具有重要的现实意义。本文利用新口径地方政府债务数据,实证检验了地方政府债务扩张对全要素生产率的影响、传导机制及异质性表现。研究发现:第一,地方政府债务的扩张不利于全要素生产率的提高;第二,由地方政府债务扩张导致的资本配置效率下降是造成上述负面影响的重要机制;第三,在土地融资依赖度和市场化程度更低的城市,上述影响表现得更为突出;第四,进一步分解分析发现,地方政府债务扩张主要降低了规模效率。文章的研究结论对我国地方政府投融资体制改革和促进高质量发展提供了政策参考。

Improving total factor productivity is the key way to achieve high quality economic development,and the research on its influencing factors has important practical significance.In this paper,we empirically examine the impact,transmission mechanism and heterogeneity of local government debt expansion on TFP using the new data of local government debt.Firstly,the expansion of local government debt is not conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity.Second,the decrease in capital allocation efficiency caused by the expansion of local government debt is an important mechanism that causes the above negative effects.Third,the above effects are more prominent in cities with less dependence on land financing and less marketization.Fourth,further decomposition analysis finds that the expansion of local government debt mainly reduces scale efficiency.The conclusion of this paper provides policy reference for the reform of local government investment and financing system and promotion of high-quality development in China.