区域一体化对地方政府债务的影响机制与异质性分析

Mechanism of the Impact of Regional Integration on Local Government Debt and Its Heterogeneity Diagnosis

伴随传统的“行政单元”界限被逐渐打破,城市群为代表的区域一体化格局逐步形成,地方政府行为的空间联动效应在增强,负债模式也会受到相应影响。本文运用2013—2018年国内19个典型城市群204个地级市的面板数据集,基于相对价格指数法衡量的市场分割变量和动态视角的地方政府债务负担率指标,对区域一体化之于地方政府债务的影响机理及其异质性特征做了全面诊断,研究发现:(1)区域一体化有助于减少地方政府的债务扩张,且这种缓释效应在要素竞争或晋升竞争更强烈的地区更为明显;(2)区域一体化对地方政府债务扩张的缓释效应会受到金融发展水平和存量债务状况的显著制约,即金融发展水平越高和存量债务负担越重的地方,该种缓释效应相对更弱。由此,推动以城市群为空间载体的区域一体化有助于防范化解地方政府债务风险,探索跨区域的债务风险协同治理机制殊为必要;同时也需要适当平滑地方偿债压力并化解存量债务问题,管控“金融”闸门以约束地方负债的监管套利问题。

With the gradual breaking of the traditional “administrative unit” boundaries,a regional integration pattern represented by urban agglomerations has gradually taken shape.The spatial linkage effect of local government behavior is increasing,and the debt model will also be affected accordingly.Based on the panel data set of 204 prefecture-level cities in 19 typical urban agglomerations in China from 2013 to 2018,this paper uses the relative price index method to measure market segmentation.Furthermore,based on a dynamic perspective,we comprehensively diagnose the influence mechanism and heterogeneity characteristics of the degree of regional integration on the debt burden of local governments,and the research finds:(1) The process of regional integration can effectively alleviate the debt expansion of local governments,and this mitigation effect is more obvious in time periods and regions where political and economic competition is more intense.(2) The mitigation effect of regional integration on local government debt will be significantly restricted by the level of financial development and the status of existing debt.Therefore,the promotion of regional integration with urban agglomerations as a space carrier can help prevent and resolve the risk of local government debt.Also,it is necessary to explore a coordinated governance mechanism for cross-regional debt risks.At the same time,it is important to appropriately smooth the local debt repayment pressure to resolve the existing debt problem,and through the control of “financial” gates to restrain the regulatory arbitrage of local liabilities.