预期寿命增长、个人账户支付缺口与养老金替代率

Increasing Life Expectancy,Individual Account Payment Gaps and Pension Replacement Rates

预期寿命增长导致个人账户养老金出现巨额支付缺口,财政压力攀升。本文以计发月数调整和延迟退休年龄为分析路径研究参量改革对个人账户缺口与养老金替代率的影响,结果表明:(1)无政策干预下,2021—2050年个人账户养老金财政补贴现值之和约为256200.03亿元;(2)调整计发月数可使财政补贴现值之和降低77.27%,但养老金替代率下降2.38个百分点;延迟退休年龄使财政补贴现值之和缩小4.93%—18.58%,但养老金替代率提升0.22—0.86个百分点;(3)当同时延迟退休年龄和每10年动态调整计发月数时,财政补贴现值之和降幅可达78.55%,养老金替代率在不同职工类别中也实现了相对公平。对此,政府应制定符合人口年龄结构变化的延迟退休年龄方案,并根据预期寿命动态调整个人账户计发月数。

The increasing life expectancy of the population has led to huge payment gaps in individual account pensions and rising financial pressure.This paper examines the impact of the parametric reform on the individual account gap and pension replacement rate based on the monthly accrual adjustment and delayed retirement age,and the results show that:(1) The sum of the present value of individual account pension financial subsidies from 2021 to 2050 is about 25620.003 billion yuan without policy intervention.(2) Adjusting the number of months of accrual to life expectancy in 2020 would reduce the sum of the present value of financial subsidies by 77.27% but reduce the average pension replacement rate by 2.38pp;The policy of delaying the retirement age reduces the size of the gap by 4.93%–18.58% overall,but the pension replacement rate can be increased by 1.18–1.90pp.(3) When simultaneously delaying retirement age and dynamically adjusting the number of months of accrual,the sum of the present value of financial subsidies decreases by up to 78.55%.In addition,the pension replacement rate have also achieved relative equity across employee categories.In summary,simultaneously delaying the retirement age and adjusting the number of months of accrual can not only significantly mitigate the risk of individual account pension payments,but also enhance the satisfaction of employees’ pensions.In response,the government should formulate a program to delay the retirement age in line with the changing age structure of the population,and dynamically adjust the number of months of individual account accrual according to life expectancy.