德国政府经济角色转变的表现特征、动因分析和对中德关系的影响--以《德国工业战略2030》为线索

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Transformation of the Economic Role of the German Government and Its Influence on Sino-German Relations:Take The German Industrial Strategy 2030 as a Clue

世界政治经济秩序变革加速,各国政府经济角色定位也出现相应转变。以《德国工业战略2030》为线索,结合斯密政府角色理论和国际政治经济学代表理论,分别剖析德国政府经济角色转变的表现特征及其内因和外因,可以发现:德国政府经济角色从“间接维护经济”型到“直接干预经济”型、从“被动应对冲击”型到“主动革新战略”型、从“完全自由竞争”型到“局部贸易保护”型和从“单一布局国内”型到“双向联动欧盟”型的转变特征凸显;德国国内经济增长疲软、战略性新兴产业培育不足、社会公共保障支撑乏力三点主要内因与欧盟制度抑制、全球泛政治化扩张性产业政策竞争加剧、国际分工体系变革三点主要外因,助推其政府经济角色转变。德国政府经济角色转变将造成中德经贸竞合张力加大、中德平稳关系变数增多、双边关系影响机制复杂、区域发展需求对中德关系影响增强四方面影响,这对中国政治经济未来发展具有一定启示。

The transformation of the world political and economic order is accelerating,and the positioning of the economic role of governments is also changing accordingly.Taking The German Industrial Strategy 2030 released in 2019 as a clue and combining with Smith's government role theory and representative theories of international political economy,this paper analyzes the characteristics and internal and external causes of the transformation of the German government's economic role respectively.Analysis shows that the German government's economic role shifted clearly from"indirect maintenance economy"to"direct intervention in the economy",from"passive response shock"to"active innovation strategy",from"completely free competition"to"local protectionism"and from"single domestic layout"to"two-way EU interaction".What promoted the transformation of German government's economic role are the three main internal causes,namely,weak domestic economic growth,insufficient cultivation of strategic emerging industries,and weak support of social public security,and the three main external causes,namely,the inhibition of the EU system,the intensification of global politicized and expansionary industrial policy competition,and the reform of international division of labor system.Therefore,the transformation of the economic role of the German government will result in increased tension of Sino-German economic and trade competition and cooperation,increased variables of the stable Sino-German relationship,a complex mechanism of influence on bilateral relations,and enhanced influence of regional development demands on Sino-German relations.This has some enlightenment for China's future political and economic development.