协同实现碳达峰目标和2035年现代化目标的策略研究

A Strategic Research of Achieving Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission and the Modernization in 2035 Coordinately

2030年前实现碳达峰与2035年基本实现社会主义现代化(以下简称“双目标”),是我国政府对世界和全国人民的庄严承诺。支撑双目标实现的因素错综复杂,有些相辅相成,有些相互制约。尽快开展相关研究,探索可行路径,避免顾此失彼,亟须且必要。本文通过碳达峰对经济增速上限的锁定、国际碳达峰规律、不同时间点碳达峰损益和风险等一系列定性和定量分析,结合国际经验和我国实际,深入探讨了我国推进双目标实现的协同策略。包括在严控“两高”产业产能盲目增长前提下,2029年前完善和优化能源环境约束性指标;让现有企业先进产能充分释放潜能,积累低碳转型财力和创新力;2030年开始,实施“碳达峰风暴”,确保2030年前碳达峰目标的实现;通过积极的经济高质量发展政策,强化可再生能源和核能发展扶持力度,确保2035年基本实现现代化目标等。最后建议各地、各行业都要防止盲目发布孤立的过早碳达峰目标,更要防止延续或加码某些现有政策措施导致隐蔽性更强的过早碳达峰问题。

To achieve carbon peak by 2030 and socialist modernization by 2035 is the solemn commitment of the Chinese government to the whole world and the people of the country.The various factors supporting these dual goals are complicated,with some complement each other,while some restrict each other.It is urgent and necessary to carry out relevant research as soon as possible and explore feasible paths to avoid losing one to the other.The paper contains a series of qualitative and quantitative analysis as follows:the economic growth cap exerted by carbon peak,the international carbon peak patterns,the loss and risk under different time of carbon peak.Combined with international experience and the reality of our country,the paper thoroughly discusses the collaborative strategies to promote the dual goals.Under the background of controlling the " two-high" industries’ increasing,how to improve and optimize binding targets for energy and environment by 2029.Encourage the non-backward firms to fully unleash their potential,accumulating financial resources and innovation capacity for low-carbon transformation.Implement " Carbon Peak Storm" to ensure carbon peak by 2030.Propose more active and high-quality policies,strengthening support for renewable energy and nuclear energy development,ensuring the modernization targets will be achieved by 2035.In the end,all localities and industries should avoid blindly proposing isolated early carbon peak targets,as well as prevent the continuation or amplification of some existing policies,resulting in a more concealed early carbon peak problem.A series of countermeasures and suggestions to ensure the collaborative realization of "dual goals" are proposed.