多种数值模式预报要素对比检验分析

Comparison and Analysis of Forecast Elements of Various Numerical Models

检验分析了欧洲中心、福州模式、中央台指导预报、河北模式的多个预报要素,包括整点温度、整点湿度、风向、风速、最高温度、最低温度。通过对比分析误差、平均绝对误差、预报准确率得到以下结论:(1)整点温度预报误差除了个别预报时效外,普遍为负值,平均绝对误差随着预报时效的增加是波动式变大的,福州模式的平均绝对误差整体较低,而其预报准确率高于其他模式。(2)相对湿度的误差欧洲中心和福州模式普遍为正值,中央台指导大部分预报时效为负值,相对湿度的预报福州模式整体优于其他模式。(3)风向的预报欧洲中心最优,风速的预报福州模式和中央台指导最优,48 h时效之后福州模式更具有参考价值。(4)数值模式最高、最低温度预报都具有一定的系统性偏差,欧洲中心和福州模式表现得更明显,河北模式的系统性偏差最为收敛,但是误差的收敛程度不能决定绝对误差和准确率。最高温度和最低温度的平均绝对误差均随着预报时效的推移而增加。欧洲中心、福州模式和河北模式最高温度的预报准确率明显高于中央台指导,其中,3种模式24~72 h预报时效较接近,96~168 h预报时效以福州模式准确率更高;另外,最低温度的准确率则表现为福州模式整体优于其他3种模式。(5)欧洲中心和福州模式的最高温度、最低温度预报的误差区域性差异较明显。

The article examines and analyzed multiple forecast elements of the European Center,Fuzhou Model,Central Station Guided Forecast,and Hebei Model,including hourly temperature,hourly humidity,wind direction,wind speed,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature.By comparing and analyzing the error,the average absolute error,and the forecast accuracy rate,the following conclusions were obtained:(1)The whole point temperature forecast error was generally negative except for individual forecast timeliness.The mean absolute error fluctuated with the increase of forecast timeliness.The mean absolute error of the Fuzhou model was generally low,and its forecast accuracy rate higher than other modes.(2)The error of relative humidity was generally positive in the European Central and Fuzhou models,and most of the forecast timelines were guided by the Central Meteorological Observatory to be negative.The Fuzhou model for relative humidity forecasts was generally better than other models.(3)The forecast of wind direction was the best in Europe.The forecast of wind speed in Fuzhou mode and the guidance of the Central Meteorological Observatory were the best.The Fuzhou model has more reference value after the 48h aging.(4)The maximum and minimum temperature forecasts of the numerical model had certain systematic deviations.The European and Fuzhou models were more obvious.The Hebei model had the most convergent systematic deviations,but the degree of convergence of errors couldn’t determine the absolute error and accuracy.Rate.The mean absolute error of the highest temperature and the lowest temperature both increase with the aging of the forecast.The forecast accuracy rate of the highest temperature of the European Center,Fuzhou model and Hebei model was significantly higher than that of the Central Meteorological Observatory.Among them,the three models of 24-72h forecast timeliness were relatively close,and the Fuzhou model of 96-168h has a higher accuracy;in addition,the lowest temperature The overall accuracy of Fuzhou model was better than the other three models.(5)The regional differences of the maximum and minimum temperature prediction errors between the European Center and Fuzhou models were more obvious.