近59年康保县气候变化特征及其对农业生产的影响分析

Analysis of Climate Change Characteristics and Its Impact on Agricultural Production of Kangbao in Recent 59 Years

为了探求康保县近年来的气候变化特征,利用一元线性回归方程等数理统计方法,分析了康保县1961—2019年的降水、气温和日照情况。结果表明:1997—2019年康保县的年降水量呈上升趋势,1997—2013年的干燥度呈下降趋势,近23年的降水量和干燥度的发展趋势有利于农业生产;1961—2019年康保县的年平均气温和冬季极端最低气温均呈上升趋势,有利于大部分农作物生长和玫瑰等灌木的顺利越冬;康保县日照充足,2006—2019年的日照时数呈上升趋势;康保县雨热同季,月降水量和月平均气温的最大值均出现在7月。近年来,利用康保县的气候变化特征,逐步引进了玫瑰、枸杞和藜麦等经济作物,取得了一定的经济效益和社会效益。

In order to explore the characteristics of climate change in Kangbao County in recent years,the precipitation,temperature and sunshine in Kangbao county from 1961 to 2019 were analyzed by using mathematical statistical methods such as linear regression equation.The results showed that the annual precipitation in Kangbao county increased from 1997 to 2019,and the dryness decreased from 1997 to 2013.The development trend of precipitation and dryness in recent 23 years was favorable to agricultural production.From 1961 to 2019,the annual mean temperature and winter extreme minimum temperature in Kangbao County showed an increasing trend,which was conducive to the growth of most crops and the smooth overwintering of roses and other shrubs.Kangbao county has abundant sunshine,and the sunshine hours show an upward trend from 2006 to 2019.Kangbao county had the same rainy and hot season,and the maximum monthly precipitation and mean temperature both appeared in July.In recent years,the economic crops such as rose,medlar and quinoa have been gradually introduced in Kangbao county based on the characteristics of climate change,and certain economic and social benefits have been achieved.