中国流动人口的婚姻状态稳定性研究

Marital Status Stability of Floating Population in China

随着现代化和个体主义对中国传统婚的冲击,流动人口婚姻状态稳定性的研究不仅应关注已婚者的离婚,还应包括未婚者的晚婚、同居和不婚,以及其间的转化。通过2018年流动人口动态监测调查数据分析发现:(1)与之前出生世代比较,当前进入婚姻事件的群体,同居和晚婚的相对风险在上升,离婚的相对风险变小,且随着流动范围扩大,晚婚、同居和不婚相对风险均增加。(2)高受教育流动群体晚婚的可能性最大,但婚后婚姻质量更高,离婚的可能性最小;高中受教育流动群体晚婚可能性较小,但受婚姻质量和搜寻成本影响,离婚可能性最大。(3)低受教育流动群体特别是农村男性的离婚可能性较小,但不婚、同居的可能性最大,存在从未婚状态向已婚状态转化的困难。可以认为,在教育分层过程中形成的婚姻状态差异,为当代中国教育均衡发展和全面认识多元婚姻状态的稳定、不稳定以及相互转化提供启示。

With the impact of modernization and individualism on Chinese traditional marriage,the study of marital status stability should not only focus on the divorce,but the late marriage,cohabitation and non-marriage,and the tans⁃formatoin among them.Using the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2018,the results show that(1)compared with the previous birth generation,the floating groups entering the marriage event are more likely to cohabit and marry late,and less likely to divorce,and the relative risks of late marriage,cohabitation and non-marriage increase with the expansion of mobility;(2)highly educated floating groups are more likely to marry late,but the quality of marriage is higher and the possibility of divorce is least;the group with senior high school education entered the first marriage earli⁃er,but the relative risk of divorce was the biggest by the affect of marriage quality and search cost;(3)the male group with the lowest education level in rural areas has a relatively low risk of divorce,but they have the highest risk of nonmarriage and cohabitation,and have difficulties in getting married.It can be concluded that the marital status differenc⁃es formed in the process of education stratification have some enlightenment on the balanced development of education and the understanding of marital status stability,instability,and mutual transformation.