生育政策调整对女性劳动供给的影响——基于DID-PSM方法的证据

The Effects of Fertility Policy Adjustment on Women’s Labor Supply:Evidence Based on DID-PSM Method

利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014~2018年面板数据,采用双重差分和倾向得分匹配方法估计了生育政策调整对女性劳动供给的影响,进一步考察了生育政策调整对不同特征女性劳动供给影响的异质性及时期效应。研究发现,生育政策调整对女性劳动参与并没有显著的负影响,但对女性每周工作时间、正规就业概率、工资水平有显著负影响。政策调整后女性每周工作时间下降了6.013个小时,正规就业概率下降了7.6%,工资水平下降了73%。其中35岁以下、受教育程度较低的女性劳动供给受到政策调整影响较大。实证结果表明,生育政策调整并没有使女性马上退出劳动力市场,但女性却是以选择、变换较为灵活的工作或减少劳动时间、接受较低工资的方式继续留在劳动力市场。长期来看,这一状况将不利于女性劳动供给质量以及个体福利水平的提高。扩大和改进协调工作与家庭的政策,完善和增进劳动力市场结构与弹性;加强对低收入家庭补贴,加强非正规就业群体的社会保障;健全儿童照料政策,扩大儿童照料设施供给是保障女性劳动权和生育权的关键措施。

Based on the panel data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper estimates the impact of the fer⁃tility policy adjustment on the overall female labor supply by using double difference and propensity score matching methods.And the heterogeneity and time effect of the policy on different female labor supply are further investigated.The results show that the policy has no significant negative impact on women’s labor participation,but has a significant negative impact on weekly working hours,regular employment and wage level.After the implementation of the policy,women’s working hours per week decreased by 6.013 hours,the probability of formal employment decreased by 7.6%,and the wage level decreased by 73%.Among them,the labor supply of women under 35 years old,with low education level is greatly affected by the policy.The period effect suggests that the policy may not make women quit the labor mar⁃ket immediately,but it is at the cost of women choosing,changing more flexible jobs or reducing working hours and ac⁃cepting lower wages.In the long run,this situation will not be conducive to the improvement of female labor supply qual⁃ity and individual welfare level.Expanding and improving policies for reconciling work and family,improving and en⁃hancing the structure and flexibility of the labor market,strengthening subsidies to low-income families,perfecting the social security of informal employment groups,improving the child care policy and expanding the supply of child care facilities are the key measures to protect women’s labor rights and reproductive rights.