人口老龄化与家庭金融资产配置——基于倾向得分匹配法的实证研究

Aging and the Allocation Efficiency of Household Financial Assets:An Empirical Research Based on PSM Model

人口老龄化是我国面临的重要挑战,金融资产的合理配置有助于减轻家庭的养老负担,进而保障养老安全。文章以2017年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)为基础,通过PSM模型研究老龄化对家庭金融资产和风险资产整体持有情况的影响,并从配置效率的角度进行拓展,使用Tobit模型研究老龄人口比例对家庭金融资产组合配置效率的影响,深入解释人口老龄化与家庭金融资产配置的关系。结果表明:第一,老龄家庭的金融资产持有比重和金融资产组合预期收益率高于非老龄家庭。老龄化水平越深,家庭金融资产的种类、持有比重和配置效率越高。第二,老龄化促进家庭的风险资产种类、持有比重和配置效率的提高,但是会降低风险资产组合的预期收益率。第三,农村家庭的老龄化没有显著影响资产组合的配置效率,风险厌恶家庭的老龄化对金融资产配置效率的促进作用强于非风险厌恶家庭。为推动老龄家庭优化金融资产配置,应根据老人年龄推广低风险的混合型理财产品以及加强农村地区的金融知识宣传。

Population aging is an important challenge in China.The rational allocation of financial assets can help re⁃duce the family's pension burden and ensure the security of pension.Based on the 2017 China Household Finance Sur⁃vey(CHFS)data,the PSM model is used to study the impact of aging on the overall holdings of household financial as⁃sets and risk assets.From the perspective of allocation efficiency,the Tobit model is used to study the effect of the pro⁃portion of the elderly population on the allocation efficiency of household financial assets,and to deeply explain the re⁃lationship between population aging and household financial asset allocation.The results show that:First,the propor⁃tion of financial assets held by aging households and the expected return on financial asset portfolios are higher than those of non-aging households.The deeper the level of aging,the higher the type,holding ratio and allocation efficien⁃cy of household financial assets.Second,aging promotes the increase in the types of risky assets,holding proportions and allocation efficiency of households,but it will reduce the expected return of risky asset portfolios.Third,the aging of rural households does not significantly affect the allocation efficiency of asset portfolios,and the aging of risk-averse households has a stronger role in promoting the efficiency of financial asset allocation than non-risk-averse house⁃holds.In order to promote the optimal allocation of financial assets of elderly families,feasible measures include:pro⁃moting low-risk hybrid wealth management products according to the age of the elderly and strengthening financial knowledge promotion in rural areas.