生育行为对中国农村老年健康的影响效应——基于健康生产与生命历程理论

The Effect of Reproductive Behavior on Elderly Health in Rural China:Based on the Healthy Production and Life Course Theory

生命历程理论指出,早年行为或生活事件会影响健康状况。对于农村老年人而言,生育行为是一种典型的早期生活事件,如何影响老年健康是值得探讨的重要议题。文章基于2016年全国12个省份36个县的调查数据,利用有序Probit模型和两阶段最小二乘法,实证分析生育行为对农村老年健康的影响效应。研究结果表明:生育数量对农村老年自评健康、躯体健康和精神健康,均呈现出显著的负向影响,生育数量每增加1个孩子,农村老年自评健康、躯体健康和精神健康状况更差的概率将分别增加51.6%、1.52倍和51.4%;生育结构对农村老年躯体健康有显著的负向影响,生育子女数中儿子与女儿数量的比值每增加一个单位,农村老年躯体健康更差的概率将增加94.6%;生育间隔对农村老年自评健康和躯体健康有显著的正向影响,生育间隔每增加一年,农村老年自评健康和躯体健康更好的概率将分别增加2.9%和3.4%。政策启示在于:尽快出台适当的鼓励生育政策,加强教育引导,消除性别歧视,规范农村“彩礼”市场,通过奖惩并重的方式,弥补农村育龄妇女生育行为的健康损失,有助于从长远角度提升人们的健康水平,促进健康中国战略目标的顺利实现。

Life course theory states that early life behaviors or life events can influence health outcomes.For the elder⁃ly in rural areas,fertility behavior is a typical early life event,and how to affect the health of the elderly is an important issue.This paper based on the survey data of 36 counties in 12 provinces of China in 2016,From a historical perspec⁃tive,empirically analyzes the causal effect of fertility behavior and rural elderly health by using the ordered probit mod⁃el and two-stage least square method.The results showed that the number of births had a significant negative impact on the self-rated health,physical health and mental health of the rural elderly.The probability of self-rated health,physi⁃cal health and mental health of the rural elderly will increase by 51.6%,1.52 times and 51.4%for each additional child.The fertility structure has a significant negative impact on the physical health of rural elderly people.In the num⁃ber of children,the probability of poor physical health of rural elderly people will increase by 94.6%for every unit in⁃crease in the sex ratio between son and daughter.The birth interval has a significant positive impact on the self-rated health and physical health of the rural elderly.The probability of self-rated health and physical health of the rural elder⁃ly will increase by 2.9%and 3.4%,respectively,every year that the birth interval increases.Policy implications of this article is:the appropriate fertility policy,strengthen the education guide to eliminate gender discrimination,regulate ru⁃ral“bride price”in the market,through the way of rewards and punishments to make up for the rural women of child⁃bearing age birth behavior health loss,will help to promote people’s health level from long-term Angle and the smooth realization of the health promoting China’s strategic objectives.