网络基础设施投入对区域经济高质量增长的影响研究——基于生产性资本存量的估算

Research on the Impact of Network Infrastructure Investment on High-quality Regional Economic Growth:Based on the Estimation of Productive Capital Stock

本文通过审慎估算整体和不同类型网络基础设施的生产性资本存量,构建1993—2017年省级面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型检验其对区域经济高质量增长的影响。经验分析表明:整体网络基础设施的直接效应虽然显著为正,但是在样本期间呈现倒“U”型特征,且在东部地区最强、西部地区最弱;其间接效应整体上显著为正,但在经济发展的初中期并不显著,且在东部地区最强、中部地区最弱。在具体结构类型差异方面,交通设施的直接效应整体最强且在中部地区最弱,通信设施居次且在样本期间持续下降,能源设施最小且在中部地区最强;能源设施的间接效应整体最大,交通设施居次且在西部地区最弱,通信基础设施最小且在初期显著为负。此外,点基础设施的直接效应在经济进入“新常态”后,仍持续增强且在西部地区更大。据此,为进一步优化各类基础设施投资策略、推动区域经济高质量增长提出对策建议。

In this paper,we carefully estimate the productive capital stock of network infrastructure and its different types of facilities,construct provincial panel data from 1993 to 2017,and use the spatial Dubin model to test its impact on high-quality regional economic growth.Empirical analysis shows that although the direct effect of the overall network infrastructure capital is significantly positive,it has an inverted“U”shape during the sample period,and it is the strongest in the eastern region and the weakest in the western region.The indirect effect of the overall network infrastructure capital is significantly positive,but it is not significant in the early and middle stages of economic development,and it is the strongest in the eastern region and the weakest in the central region.In terms of differences in specific structural types,the direct effects of transportation facilities are the strongest overall and weakest in the central region,communication facilities are second and continue to decline during the sample period,and energy facilities are the smallest and strongest in the central regions.The overall indirect effects of energy facilities are the largest,transportation facilities are the second and weakest in the western region,and communications infrastructure is the smallest and significantly negative in the early stages.In addition,the direct effect of point infrastructure continues to increase after the economy enters the“new normal”and is relatively greater in the western region.Accordingly,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for further optimizing various infrastructure investment strategies and promoting high-quality regional economic growth.