增加值贸易顺差、产业价值链升级对反倾销影响研究:基于美国对华反倾销经验数据

Effect of Value-added Trade Surplus and Industrial Value Chain Upgrading on Anti-dumping:Based on US Anti-dumping against China

基于世界反倾销数据库,运用WIOD核算的1995—2011年中美增加值贸易行业层面数据,借助Logit和负二项回归模型探讨增加值贸易顺差、产业价值链升级对反倾销的影响。研究结论如下:(1)增加值贸易顺差与美国对华发起反倾销和实施终裁的数量和概率成正比,而我国产业价值链升级与美国对华发起反倾销和实施终裁的数量和概率成反比;(2)相较于增加值贸易顺差,传统总值贸易顺差被高估了30%~45%,使得美国对华发起反倾销的概率增加了60%;(3)增加值贸易顺差和产业价值链升级对发起反倾销的影响大于对反倾销终裁的影响;(4)增加值贸易顺差和产业价值链升级共同作用下反倾销案件发起及终裁概率比单独作用下概率大,反倾销发起案件数量比单独作用下案件数量小。

Based onthe data of US anti-dumping against China from World Bank Global Anti-dumping Database,this paper uses the data from WIOD to calculate China-US value-added trade at the industrial level from 1995 to 2011 and applies logit and negative binary model to examine the effect of value-added trade surplus and industrial value chain upgrading on anti-dumping cases.The main results are as follows:(1)The value-added trade surplus has a positive correlation with the probability and number of US anti-dumping initial investigations and final determinations against China;while the upgrading of China’s industrial value chain has a negative correlation with the probability and number of US anti-dumping initial investigations and final determinations against China;(2)Compared with the value-added trade surplus,the traditional overall trade surplus is overestimated by 30%-45%,which in turn increases the probability of US anti-dumping initial investigation against China by 60%;(3)the combined effect of value-added trade surplus and industrial value chain upgrading on US anti-dumping initial investigation against China is larger than that on final determination;(4)if considering value-added trade surplus and industrial value chain upgrading simultaneously,the combined effect on probability of US anti-dumping initial investigation against China will be larger than when only value-added trade surplus is considered;but the combined effect on the number of US anti-dumping initial investigations and final determinations against China will be smaller than when only value-added trade surplus is considered.