分析师背景、公司特征与现金流预测

Analysts’Background,Company Characteristics and Cash-flow Forecast

以往研究从投资者信息需求视角解释分析师现金流预测行为,并不能很好地解释分析师在其研究报告受到普遍质疑的情况下仍然供给现金流预测信息的行为。本文拟从信息供给视角考察我国证券分析师发布现金流预测信息的原因。实证结果发现:所在券商机构规模越大、经验越丰富、跟踪行业越少的证券分析师更愿意发布现金流预测信息;证券分析师更愿意对治理状况好、业务简单、经营风险大的公司发布现金流预测信息。这些发现说明,证券分析师会综合自身优势和被跟踪公司特征的情况,基于成本收益最优原则供给现金流预测信息。本文研究结论有助于投资者认识我国特殊制度背景下证券分析师发布现金流预测信息的内在决策过程,并有助于投资者有效、合理地使用分析师研究报告。

The reputation of financial analysts in China is doubted by more and more market participants,yet the issuance of cash-flow forecasts by financial analysts is increasing.Based on the institutional background,this paper investigates why financial analysts issue the cash-flow forecast of the listed firms,through which we can examine the decision procedure of analysts’forecasts.Empirical results show that financial analysts are more likely to issue cash-flow forecasts if they work in a large and experienced brokerage house that covers a small number of industries.Further,financial analysts are more willing to give cash-flow forecasts in relation to the firms with sound corporate governance,simple business and significant operating risks.These results imply that when analysts are making cash-flow forecasts decisions,they consider mainly their personal advantages and firms’characteristics.Their decisions are based on benefit-cost maximization principle.This research can provide new evidence on how investors should regard financial analysts’role in Chinese capital market and correspondingly make a better use of analyst reports.