环境治理的绩效评估及其对地方经济的影响——基于2017年“2+26”城大气污染治理与督察的实证分析

Performance Evaluation of Environmental Governance and Its Impact on Local Economy——An Empirical Analysis Based on 2017 "2+26" City Air Pollution Control and Inspection

京津冀作为大气污染的重灾区和经济核心区,大气治理和督察对其是一把双刃剑。本文研究发现2017年秋冬季京津冀地区大气污染治理和督查显著改进了该地区的空气质量,PM2.5相对于平均值下降了19%;AQI指数下降了15%。在这次环境治理行动中,环保督察对于空气质量改善的即期影响十分明显,但环境政策在有效抑制污染的同时也对当地经济造成了显著的负面影响。环保治理政策使得受影响城市2017年的GDP增速下降了大约13%,工业生产增速降幅约为24%,但是这些城市的公共财政与居民收入增速在短期没有明显变化。

As the core area of both air pollution and economic growth,Jing-Jin-Ji area has many things to consider when implementing pollution policies. Using a difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity design,we find that the 2017 campaign on environmental regulation in Jing-Jin-Ji area significantly improved air quality by more than 20% during the fall and winter of 2017. The strict enforcement measure taken during this campaign was particularly effective. Air quality improvement came with a cost. We find that at least during the period of the campaign,both GDP and industrial growth were significantly lower,around 7-10%. However,there appears to be no significant negative impact on household income and government revenue.