经济不确定性下我国最优减税政策组合

The Optimal Choice of Tax Reduction Policy Under Economic Uncertainty

基于包含结构性减税政策的DSGE模型,研究以劳动力需求和全要素生产率为代表的经济不确定性冲击下不同减税政策组合的宏观经济影响;同时通过计量模型有效分解经济不确定性冲击,以分析在全要素生产率和劳动需求合力冲击下减税政策组合的居民福利状况,并评价不同减税政策的效果,为最优减税政策的选择提供依据。最终得出结论:全要素生产率冲击下,组合型减税政策可放大外部冲击的正面效应,促进经济增长;劳动需求冲击下,结构性减税政策的“自动稳定器”功能较强,可更好地平滑外部冲击带来的宏观经济波动;经济不确定性冲击下组合型减税政策与结构性减税政策的福利效应要优于单一减税政策;政府需要在了解外部冲击类型的前提下,根据宏观政策目标,有针对性地调整不同的税率。

This paper constructs a DSGE model including structural tax reduction policies,and studies the macroeconomic impact of different combinations of tax reduction policies under the impact of economic uncertainty represented by labor demand and total factor productivity.At the same time,the econometric model is used to effectively decompose the impact of economic uncertainty to analyze the welfare status of the combination of tax reduction policies under the impact of total factor productivity and labor demand,and to evaluate the effects of different tax reduction policies.To provide a basis for the choice of the optimal tax reduction policy.Finally,it is concluded that under the impact of total factor productivity,the combined tax reduction policy can amplify the positive effects of external shocks and promote economic growth;under the impact of labor demand,the"automatic stabilizer"function of structural tax reduction policy is stronger,it can better smooth the macroeconomic fluctuations caused by external shocks;under the impact of economic uncertainty,the welfare effect of combined tax reduction policy and structural tax reduction policy is better than that of single tax reduction policy.The government needs to adjust different tax rates according to macro policy objectives on the premise of understanding the types of external shocks.