房价波动对中国区域金融稳定的影响——基于面板与空间杜宾模型分析

The Impact of House Price Fluctuation on China’s Provincial Financial Stability:Analysis Based on Panel and Spatial Dobbin Model

近年来房地产领域“黑天鹅”频出,对我国区域金融稳定造成了较大影响。基于2015—2019年间省级层面的季度数据,选择八大金融风险领域合成了我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的区域金融稳定指数,并通过运用系统GMM模型与空间杜宾模型,测量房价波动对中国区域金融稳定的影响及其空间效应。研究表明,房价波动会导致区域金融风险增加,并且在宽松的货币环境下会增强影响的显著性;由于不同区域之间地理环境和社会经济存在密切联系,房价波动不仅会增加本区域金融风险,还会增加相邻区域的金融风险,而且这种空间溢出效应在地缘环境中体现得更加显著。

In recent years,the frequent occurrence of black swans in the field of real estate has had a great impact on China’s regional financial stability. Based on the quarterly data at the provincial level from 2015 to 2019,this paper selects eight financial risk areas to synthesize the regional financial stability index of 31 provinces in China,and uses the systematic GMM model and spatial Dobbin model to measure the impact of house price fluctuation on China’s regional financial stability and its spatial effect. The research shows that the fluctuation of house price will lead to the increase of regional financial risk,And in a loose monetary environment,it will enhance the significance of the impact. Due to the close relationship between the geographical environment and social economy between different regions,the fluctuation of house prices will not only increase the financial risk of the region,but also increase the financial risk of adjacent regions,and this spatial spillover effect is more significant in the geographical environment.