扩大进口政策的贸易与福利效应——基于投入产出结构的一般均衡模型分析

Trade and Welfare Effects of Import Expansion--Based on General Equilibrium Analysis of Input-Output Structure

本文聚焦于关税成本变化,量化分析了扩大进口带来的贸易与福利效应。在完全竞争情形下,构建了一个纳入投入产出结构的多国多部门异质性企业一般均衡分析模型,结合中国加入WTO这一事件,讨论了扩大开放下中间品和最终品关税削减变化的贸易和福利效应。本文研究了在全球价值链下中间品和最终品关税的变化对不同用途产品贸易所产生的促进和抑制效应,发现一国对不同用途产品的关税削减可能带来的政策效应并不相同。具体而言:(1)中国是加入WTO履行关税削减义务的最大受益者,带来了福利的改善;(2)福利改善以贸易条件恶化为代价,带来了贸易量的增长;(3)由于对中国贸易条件的改善和贸易量的增长,世界其他国家也从中国的关税削减中受益;(4)中国的平均关税水平仍有下调空间,中国和世界还将从中国进一步扩大进口政策中获益。

From the perspective of changes in tariff costs,this paper quantitatively analyzes the trade and welfare effects of import expansion.In a perfectly competitive scenario,the input-output structure is introduced into a multinational and multisectoral general equilibrium analytical model with heterogeneous firms.This modeling framework paves the way for the discussion on the trade and welfare effects of tariff reduction on intermediate and final goods due to greater openness in international trade in the context of China’s entry into the WTO.Under the global value chains,the analyses of the facilitating and depressing effects of the changes in tariffs on intermediate and final goods imposed on the trade of multipurpose products lead to the revelation that tariff reduction on multipurpose products in a country may bring about different policy effects.The results show:(1)China is beneficiary from the WTO accession as the fulfilling of the tariff reduction commitments improves welfare;(2)the welfare improvement leads to growth in trade volume at the cost of the deteriorating terms of trade;(3)other countries in the world also benefit from China’s tariff reduction due to their improved terms of trade and increased trade volume with China;(4)the further expansion of China’s imports will benefit both China and the world.