碳中和背景下清洁能源技术关键伴生金属可供性约束研究回顾与展望

Review and prospects of the availability constraints of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technologies in the context of carbon neutrality goal

伴生金属具有独特的物理或化学性能,是清洁能源技术发展的重要物质基础。推进碳中和目标将带动清洁能源技术加快部署,进而促进关键伴生金属需求快速增加。然而,未来关键伴生金属供给却面临受限的压力,使得清洁能源技术关键伴生金属供给安全问题变得日益突出。基于此,文章从理论分析、研究方法和干预路径等方面对清洁能源技术关键伴生金属可供性约束相关研究进行了系统梳理。研究发现:①关键伴生金属可供性约束是在多系统、多因素交互作用下的结果,联合生产机制和清洁能源产业需求影响机制是可供性约束形成的主要驱动机制。②伴生金属资源储量评估研究面临数据缺失问题的挑战,传统独立金属产量预测模型并不适用于伴生金属可供产量分析。在预测不同能源技术对关键伴生金属的需求时,应区分传统、成熟技术领域与新兴技术领域,进而采取相适用的模型。文章综合构建了清洁能源技术关键伴生金属可供性约束研究方法清单,以期为后续研究提供方法指引。③关键伴生金属可供性约束干预路径的研究主要集中在废物回收、产品设计和生产冶炼环节,对产品使用和加工制造环节的研究较少,缺乏系统性研究,而且不同产业链环节干预路径所面临的机遇和挑战不同。④未来需要深化对关键伴生金属可供性约束影响机制的研究,综合运用集成性方法对伴生金属可供性进行系统评估,深入解构中国“双碳”目标情景下伴生金属可供性约束动态演变趋势,并基于全产业链环节对中国关键伴生金属可供性约束干预路径开展系统性研究,为推动能源转型、达成碳中和目标提供关键伴生金属安全供给保障方案。

Clean energy technologies have become increasingly dependent on critical byproduct metals to perform specialized functions due to their unique physical or chemical properties.More critical byproduct metals will be required to enable the implementation of China’s carbon neutrality goal.However,the supply uncertainty of critical byproduct metals due to their high reliance on the production of the host metals have raised increasing concerns about the availability of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technologies in recent years.Therefore,this article provides a systematic review on the research of availability constraints of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technologies from three aspects:theoretical analysis,research methods,and mitigation policies.The results show that:①The availability constraints of critical byproduct metals are caused by the interaction of multiple systems and factors,with the main drivers being the joint production mechanism and industrial demand influencing mechanism.②The problem of data shortage is a challenge faced by the reserve assessment of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technologies,and the traditional production forecasting models for host metals could not be applied to the availability analysis for critical byproduct metals.Appropriate models should be used in the demand prediction of critical byproduct metals for traditional or mature technology fields,and emerging energy technology,respectively.Therefore,this article provides a summary of the research methods for the availability constraints of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technologies to provide a method guide for subsequent studies.③Research on mitigation policies of availability constraints of critical byproduct metals for clean energy technologies focuses more on waste management,product design,and production and extraction processes,but less on final-product use and manufacturing processes.Moreover,the opportunities and challenges for mitigation policies vary in different industrial chains.④The impact mechanism of the availability constraints of critical byproduct met‑als needs to be further explored in the future,and a systematic assessment of the availability of critical byproduct metals should be carried out by developing integrated methods.The dynamic evolution trend of the availability constraints of critical byproduct metals in China should be explored for the achievement of China’s‘dual carbon’goals.Research into the mitigation policies of availability constraints of critical byproduct metals in China is urgently needed from a whole industrial chain perspective to provide policy suggestions for the security of critical byproduct metals for energy transition and the achievement of the carbon neutrality goal.