基于熵权法-SD模型的综合管廊运维安全风险研究

Research on Safety Risk of Utility Tunnel Based on Entropy Weight Method-SD Model

为了评估综合管廊运维期内的安全状况,在综合考虑人为因素、管理因素、管廊主体因素、管线因素、附属设施因素和环境因素6个风险子系统的前提下,识别出18种风险因素,确立了综合管廊运维安全风险指标体系;并基于熵权法-SD构建了综合管廊运维安全风险评估模型,借助Vensim PLE软件对综合管廊项目实例进行了仿真分析。结果表明:管线因素属于重大风险因素,应重点控制,防止火灾、爆炸等安全事故威胁到管廊运维安全。

In order to evaluate the safety status of utility tunnel during operation and maintenance,18 risk factors were identified and the safety risk index system was established on the premise of considering six risk subsystems of human factors,management factors,main body factors of utility tunnel,pipeline factors,auxiliary facilities factors and environmental factors.Based on entropy-weight method and system dynamics(SD),an security risk assessment model of utility tunnel operation was constructed.A simulation analysis was carried out by Vensim PLE software.The results show that pipeline factors is a major risk that should be under key control so that fire,explosion and other safety accidents could be prevented to keep the operation and maintenance of utility tunnel.