墨脱县地质灾害气象预警模型探析

Analysis on Meteorological Early Warning Model of Geological Hazards in Motuo County

以墨脱县为研究区域,分析境内降水和地质灾害特征,得出地质灾害多发期与降水集中期和强降水事件多发时段基本出现在6—7月;以有效降雨量为评级指标,建立降雨诱发地质灾害的Logistic回归模型,得到墨脱县地质灾害易发性的概率计算公式,确立地质灾害的气象预警预报模型,经检验该模型预警准确率达78.6%,具有可行性。

Taking Motuo county as the research area,the characteristics of precipitation and geological disasters in Motuo county were analyzed,and it was concluded that the frequent occurrence period of geological disasters,precipitation concentration period and heavy precipitation events occurred in June and July.Taking effective rainfall as rating index,the Logistic regression model of rain-induced geological disaster was established,the probability calculation formula of geological disaster susceptibility was obtained,and the meteorological warning and prediction model of geological disaster was established.The prediction accuracy of the model was up to 78.6%,which was feasible.