驻马店市高森林火险天气气候特征分析

Analysis on Weather and Climate Characteristics of High Forest Fire Risk in Zhumadian City

整理分析了1981年10月至2011年4月驻马店地区的气象要素,发现风险等级较高时段主要分布在11月至翌年1月之间,风险等级较高年与11月最高气温年际变化关系密切。根据综合指标法筛选出高风险特征事件,利用NECP再分析资料对高风险时段的500 hPa环流背景进行分型分类,发现特征天气模型为脊前西北气流型、宽广槽后西北气流型和冷涡后部较平直环流型3类。与林业部门联合会商,及时发布林火等级预报,提高森林火险预警服务的时效性、精准性。

By sorting and analyzing the meteorological elements in Zhumadian area from October 1981 to April 2011,it was found that the period with high risk level was mainly distributed from November to January of the next year,and the year with high risk level was closely related to the interannual variation of the maximum temperature in November.The high-risk characteristic events were selected according to the comprehensive index method,and the 500 hPa circulation background in the high-risk period was classified by using the NECP reanalysis data.It was found that the characteristic weather models were three types:the northwest air flow type in front of the ridge,the northwest air flow type behind the broad trough and the relatively flat circulation type behind the cold vortex.Consulting with the forestry department to release the forest fire level forecast in time and to improve the timeliness and accuracy of forest fire risk early warning service.