全球各主要季风区降雨与ENSO之间关系的对比

Comparison of the Rainfall-ENSO Relationship in Main Monsoon Regions of the World

季风区降雨可以对农业活动产生重要的影响,研究和预测季风区降雨的变异对农业具有重要的意义。对比了全球各主要季风区降雨与El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)之间关系的差异(包括相关关系的年代际变异以及季风—ENSO准两年关系),旨在更好地理解全球季风降雨的演变规律和季风—ENSO之间的关系。结果表明,全球各个主要季风降雨量与同时期Ni?o3.4指数之间相关关系的年代际变异存在显著的差异。西北太平洋季风、东亚季风和南非季风存在季风降雨—ENSO的相关系数在考察的时间范围内出现正负符号转变的现象。印度夏季风降雨与Ni?o3.4指数的负相关关系在2000年以后增强;与之相反,北非夏季风降雨与Ni?o3.4指数的负相关关系在2000年以后则减弱。澳洲夏季风和北美夏季风降雨与同时期Ni?o3.4指数的相关关系比较稳定。相比较全球其他季风,西北太平洋夏季风降雨与ENSO具有更强的准两年关系。

Rainfall in the monsoon region can have an important impact on agricultural activities,and the study and prediction of the variation of rainfall in the monsoon region is of great significance to agriculture.This study compares the differences between rainfall in major global monsoon regions and El Ni?oSouthern Oscillation(ENSO)(including interdecadal variation of correlation and monsoon-ENSO biennial relationship),in order to better understand the evolution law of global monsoon rainfall and the relationship between monsoon and ENSO.The results showed that there were significant differences in the interdecadal variation of the correlations between the global main monsoon rainfall and the Ni?o3.4 index in the same period.The Northwest Pacific monsoon,East Asian monsoon and South African monsoon had positive and negative sign changes in the correlation coefficient of monsoon rainfall and ENSO within the time frame of the investigation.The negative correlation relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Ni?o3.4 index was strengthened after 2000.On the contrary,the negative correlation relationship between north African summer monsoon rainfall and Ni?o3.4 index was weakened after 2000.A relatively stable correlation relationship could be maintained between rainfall and Ni?o3.4index for the Australian summer monsoon and North American summer Monsoon.Compared with other monsoons,the Northwest Pacific summer monsoon rainfall had a stronger quasi-biennial relationship with ENSO.