基于ISM-DBN的古建筑群火灾风险演化模型

Fire Risk Evolution Model of Ancient Buildings Based on ISM-DBN

为消除古建筑群火灾安全隐患,增强预防扑救能力,采用解释结构模型(ISM)和动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)相结合的方法对古建筑群火灾全过程风险因素和演化规律进行分析。首先,根据古建筑群火灾发展全过程建立火灾风险因素层级架构,运用ISM获得各层级风险因素之间的关系;其次,使用DBN构建古建筑群火灾情景推演路径;最后,以某景区古建筑群为例,计算得到火灾演化路径各节点的状态概率,再结合ISM挖掘主要环节深层风险因素。结果表明:某景区古建筑群主要节点中发生室内火灾和扩散至临近建筑的节点状态概率较高,分别为86.4%和87.6%;为增强其应急处置能力,应减少室内可燃物荷载,增强人的自救互救能力,提高应急演练水平,加强防火墙等设施;挖掘其更深层次因素,应制定完备的应急预案、加强消防安全培训和制定消防安全管理制度。该推演情景与实际贴合程度高,有助于古建筑群火灾的精准应急管理和风险防控。

In order to eliminate the hidden danger of fire safety in ancient buildings and enhance the ability of fire prevention and fighting,this paper analyzes the risk factors and evolution law in the whole process of fire by using Interpretative Structural Model(ISM)and Dynamic Bayesian Network(DBN).Firstly,the whole process of fire occurrence and development of ancient buildings is clarified,the hierarchical structure of fire risk factors is established,and ISM is used to obtain the relationship between the risk factors of each level.Secondly,DBN is used to construct the fire scenario deduction path of ancient buildings.Finally,the probability of each node of fire evolution path is obtained,and ISM is combined to mine the deep risk fac-tors of the main link.The results are as follows:the probability of indoor fire in the main nodes of the ancient buildings in a scenic spot and the probability of spreading to the adjacent buildings are high,which are 86.4%and 87.6%respectively.In order to enhance the emergency response capability,it is necessary to reduce indoor combustible load,enhance people's self-rescue and mutual rescue capability,improve the level of emergency drill,and strengthen firewall and other facilities.The deeper factors are to develop a complete emergency plan,strengthen fire safety training and fire safety management system.It can be seen that the fire scenario of the ancient building complex is closely related to the actual situation,which is help-ful to the accurate emergency management and risk prevention and control of fire.