后疫情时代下基于WTC方法的汽车产业安全预警研究

Safety Early Warning of Automobile Industry Based on WTC Method in the Post Epidemic Era

后疫情时代下,逆全球化加速,全球价值链呈现出整体规模萎靡、本土化等特征,国内汽车产业面临着巨大的考验,不确定性日益增大的市场环境要求汽车产业必须对自身所面临的风险进行监测、防控,因此急需构建一套有效的汽车产业安全预警体系。结合后疫情时代背景和产业安全理论以及国内汽车市场特点,本文构建基于WTC(WSR-TEI@I-CRITIC)方法的汽车产业安全预警模型,首先基于物理-事理-人理方法构建汽车产业安全评价指标体系,继而运用TEI@I方法论构建基于Stacking的LRVAR-LSTM安全评价指标预测模型,最后采用CRITIC赋权法计算汽车产业安全指数,并构造预警区间,判断产业安全状况。实验表明,基于WTC方法的汽车产业安全预警模型显示出良好的预测效果,且能够根据后疫情时代下国内外市场变化及时做出响应。

In the post epidemic era,with the acceleration of De-globalization,the global value chain shows the characteris⁃tics of overall scale malaise and localization.In view of the increasingly uncertain market environment faced by the domestic automo⁃bile industry,combined with the industrial safety theory and the characteristics of the domestic automobile market,this paper constructs an automobile industry safety early warning model based on WTC method.Firstly,the safety evaluation index system of auto⁃mobile industry is constructed based on the Wuli-Shili-Renli(WSR)theory.Secondly,based on text mining+econometrics+in⁃telligence@integration(TEI@I)Methodology,the LR-VAR-LSTM safety evaluation index prediction model with stacking is con⁃structed.Finally,the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(CRITIC)weighting method is used to calculate the automobile industry safety index,and the early warning interval is constructed to judge the industrial safety status.Experimental results show that the safety early warning model of automobile industry based on WTC method shows good prediction effect,and can respond in time to the changes of domestic and foreign markets in the post epidemic era.