石榴冻害综合气候指标等级划分及应用

Classification and Application of Comprehensive Climatic Index of Pomegranate Freezing Injury

【目的】由于石榴冻害的综合气候指标研究相对较少,这就造成石榴气象服务存在一定局限性。且石榴冻害指标分级制订存在差异,缺乏统一标准,不利于石榴冻害监测预报预警和灾情评估。因此,对临潼石榴冻害综合气候指标进行分析,为石榴冻害的监测预报预警服务和灾情评估提供技术支撑。【方法】通过实地走访、资料查阅等方式调查石榴冻害灾情,建立临潼石榴冻害综合气候指标分级标准。基于1991—2020年37个冻害实例,运用主成分分析、K-means聚类分析,对临潼石榴冻害综合气候指标进行研究分析。【结果】极端最低气温、低温持续日数、过程有害积寒与石榴冻害密切相关,通过对石榴冻害数据标准化处理,构建石榴冻害综合气候等级指标(Z),包括:轻度,-7.56≤Z<-6.77;中度,-8.36≤Z<-7.56;重度,Z<-8.36。通过与典型年对比验证,并进行智能网格预报应用,发现实际发生的冻害情况与本文建立的临潼石榴冻害综合气候等级指标吻合较好,为气象服务石榴高质量发展提供模式支撑。【结论】通过典型年对比验证及智能网格预报应用,石榴冻害综合气候指标能较好的预报预测石榴冻害风险,为气象服务石榴高质量发展提供模式支撑。但暂未对临潼石榴遭受冻害后的植物生理指标进行测定,其他气象因子对石榴冻害的影响程度及其指标建立和等级划分等工作,还有待今后进一步研究。

【Objective】The research on comprehensive climatic index of pomegranate freezing injury is relatively few,which results in some limitations of pomegranate meteorological service.In addition,there are differences in classification of pomegranate freezing injury index and lack of unified standard,which is not conducive to monitor,forecast the assessment of pomegranate freezing injury.Therefore,the comprehensive climate index of pomegranate freezing injury in Lintong was analyzed to provide technical support for monitoring,forecasting and the service of pomegranate freezing injury assessment.【Methods】The comprehensive climate index classification standard of pomegranate freezing injury in Lintong was established by field visit and data reference.Based on 37 freezing injury cases from 1991 to 2020,principal component analysis and K-means clustering analysis were used to study and analyze comprehensive climatic indexes of pomegranate freezing damage in Lintong.【Results】The extreme minimum temperature,the number of days of low temperature,and the process harmful cold accumulation were closely related to pomegranate freezing injury.Through the standardized processing of pomegranate freezing injury data,the comprehensive climate grade index(Z)of pomegranate freezing injury was constructed,including mild,-7.56≤Z<-6.77;medium,-8.36≤Z<-7.56;sever Z<-8.36.【Conclusion】Through the verification of many years and the application of intelligent grid prediction,the comprehensive climate index of pomegranate freezing injury could better predict the risk of pomegranate freezing injury,and provided model support for the high-quality development of pomegranate meteorological services.However,the physiological indexes of pomegranate after freezing injury in Lintong had not been determined.The influence of other meteorological factors on the freezing injury of pomegranate and the establishment and classification of indexes needed to be further studied in the future.