中国旅游“两抢一盗”犯罪事件时空分布及组态影响因素

Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Configuration Influencing Factors in Tourism-Related Robbery, Snatching, and Theft Crimes in China

基于中国“旅行社责任保险统保示范项目”中2217条旅游“两抢一盗”犯罪事件案例数据,采用空间自相关、标准差椭圆、核密度分析和季节强度指数对中国旅游“两抢一盗”犯罪事件的时空分布特征进行分析,并采用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)对事件的组态影响因素进行探究。研究发现:1)2010-2019年中国旅游“两抢一盗”犯罪事件分布存在空间相关性与区域集聚性,但在2016年以后空间集聚性减弱。2)中国旅游“两抢一盗”犯罪事件在空间上集中分布于“胡焕庸线”东侧,并呈现总量逐年下降、高发区域不断缩减的趋势,各地区盗抢事件分布存在季节差异性和空间流动性特征,“两抢一盗”犯罪事件在昼夜24 h内呈现“驼峰”型变化趋势,存在时段集中性与省域差异性分布规律。3)旅游“两抢一盗”犯罪事件是多重因素并发的结果,5种前因组态路径构成盗抢事件发生的充分条件,地方风险因素、旅游集聚因素以及社会控制因素的相互耦合作用形成中国“两抢一盗”事件的空间分异格局,旅游依托型的偏远省份和人口密度较高的旅游大省是组态因素引致“两抢一盗”犯罪事件的代表性区域。

Robbery,snatching,and theft are the most prevalent types of tourism crime.With the development and growth of China's tourism industry,strengthening the control of tourism-related robbery,snatching,and theft crimes is very important for maintaining and shaping the security image of tourist destinations.Based on the case data of 2,217 robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents in China's"Unified Insurance Demonstration Project for Travel Agency Liability Insurance,"this study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of China's tourism-related robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents.Spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse,kernel density analysis,and seasonal intensity index were used for the analysis,and the configuration influencing factors were explored using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA).The study found that:1)there was spatial correlation and regional agglomeration in the distribution of China's robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents from 2010 to 2019.The high-incidence core areas showed a pointlike aggregation trend,mainly in southern and southwestern China.From 2010 to 2015,tourism-related robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents had a significant agglomeration effect,whereas after 2016,these criminal incidents showed a random distribution.2)The criminal incidents of robbery,snatching,and theft are spatially concentrated to the east of the"Hu Huanyong line,"showing a trend where the total amount decreases every year and the high incidence areas shrink,which is highly coupled with the popularization trend of mobile payment in China.There are seasonal differences and spatial mobility characteristics to the distribution of the robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents in various tourist destinations.The seasonal intensity index of the different regions has an upward fluctuating trend.The distribution range of these criminal incidents in the summer and autumn is larger than that in the autumn and winter,and the distribution center tends to transition to the north.Robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents show a"hump"trend over 24 hours,with the distribution law of time concentration and provincial differences.3)Tourism-related robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents are the result of multiple factors.Five antecedent configuration paths constitute the sufficient conditions for the occurrence of the incidents.The mutual coupling of local risk factors(crime rate,unemployment rate,population density),tourism agglomeration factors(proportion of tourism industry and tourist trips),and social control factors(per capita public security expenditure and mobile payment level)forms the spatial differentiation pattern of robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents.Remote provinces that rely on tourism and heavily touristed provinces with high population density are representative regions of such criminal incidents caused by configuration factors.This study reveals the provincial,temporal,and spatial distribution law of China's tourismoriented robbery,snatching,and theft crime incidents,systematically analyzes its multiple influencing factors and configuration effects,and explores the time-space coupling mechanism between tourist flow,behavior,and crime characteristics.These findings provide a theoretical reference for the monitoring and early warning of the crime incident peak at tourist destinations,the time-sharing guarantee of safety resources,and the establishment of joint prevention and control mechanisms.