基于大数据的大用户用电需求控制模型研究

Research on Power Demand Control Model of Big Users Based on Big Data

在电改背景下,业扩报装业务既是提高供电服务水平的关键一环,也是拉升电网资产利用率的重要一步。多项电力因素影响着业扩报装需求的确定,但目前在大用户电力报装的过程中设备容量等参数大多采用经验预估的方式,此方式可能出现以下两种情形:电网预留容量不足而导致无法满足实际需求,或预留容量过大而导致电网设备利用率低。本文从两个方向开展大用户用电需求预测,精准量化用电需求:(1)从大用户级别构建基于大数据的电力大用户业扩报装需求容量测算模型,通过数据模型预估报装需求;(2)从用电类别出发计算不同用电类别下的需要系数和同时系数,对大用户供电需求进行预测。

Business expansion installation is not only a key part of improving the level of power supply services,but also an important step to increase the utilization rate of power grid assets under the background of electricity reform.Several power factors affect the determination of business expansion installation requirements.At present,parameters such as equipment capacity are mostly estimated by experience in the process of power installation for big users.There are two possible scenarios for this approach:the reserved capacity of power grid is inadequate to meet the actual demand,or the reserved capacity is too large resulting in the low utilization rate of the power grid equipment.In this paper,the power demand forecast for big users goes in two directions to accurately quantify the power demand:(1)Build a big data-based power user industry expansion demand capacity measurement model from the big user level,and estimate the demand for installation through the data model;(2)Calculate the demand coefficient and simultaneous coefficient under different power consumption categories,and predict the power supply demand of big users.