商业银行能有效反应中央银行货币政策立场变化吗?——来自银行贷款损失准备计提的经验证据

Can Commercial Banks Effectively Respond to Changes in the Monetary Policy Stance of the Central Bank?——Empirical Evidence from Banks’Loan Loss Provisions

利用人民银行《货币政策执行报告》文本分析数据,本研究从银行贷款损失准备计提的角度讨论了商业银行能否反应中央银行的货币政策立场变化。结果发现,银行贷款损失准备计提与报告中的货币政策立场宽松程度显著正相关。在宽松货币政策立场时,随着政策文本相似度上升,银行贷款损失准备计提的幅度会进一步上升。此外,报告中与货币相关的内容更受银行关注。这些结果表明商业银行能较好地反应央行沟通传递出的政策信号。本研究从文本分析的角度,为中国央行沟通预期管理效应的理论和实践提供了新的证据和思路。

Based on the data of the Monetary Policy Implementation Report of the People’s Bank of China,this paper discusses whether commercial banks can respond to the changes of the central bank’s monetary policy stance from the perspective of bank loan loss provisions.The results show that the provision for bank loan losses is positively correlated with the accommodative stance of monetary policy in the report.When the monetary policy stance is loose,as the similarity of policy texts increases,the extent of loan loss provisions will further increase.In addition,the report’s monetary-related content is more concerned by banks.These results show that commercial banks can better respond to the policy signals communicated by the central bank.From the perspective of text analysis,this study provides new evidence and ideas for the theory and practice of the communication expected management effect of the People’s Bank of China.