中国入世的贸易冲击及其区域经济影响研究

A Study of the Trade Shock of China’s Entry into WTO and Its Regional Economy Effects

入世对我国制造业发展影响深远,文章基于1997、2002、2007、2012、2017年30个省级行政区行业地区层面的截面数据,考察由区域贸易构造的关税冲击对各地制造业就业和产值的影响。研究发现入世后出口关税降低引致的外需扩张对制造业就业和产值的促进效果随时间递减,影响通过区域贸易向上游传导到本地需求品的提供地;需求冲击对就业和产值的拉动作用主要集中在低等和中等技术水平行业;冲击的影响存在行业异质性。以中美贸易冲突进行反事实检验发现,重点省份的战略性行业受到较大贸易冲击,产值和就业损失严重。

China’s entry into WTO has a profound impact on the development of manufacturing industries,based on the multi-regional input-output data of 30 provincial administrative regions in 1997,2002,2007,2012 and 2017,we examine the impact of export tariff reductions on the employment and output of the manufacturing industries through the regional trade channel.We find that First,after the entry into WTO,the promotion effects of external demand increased by the reductions of the export tariffs on manufacturing employment and output decrease with time,and the impact has been transmitted from the upstream industries through the inter-regional trade to the regions where local demand goods are produced.Second,the demand-push effects on employment and output are mainly concentrated in low-and medium-tech industries.Finally,the impact on the employment caused by the inter-regional trade is varying with industries.The counterfactual test based on the China-US trade conflict shows that our strategic industries have been greatly impacted by the shock,and the output and employment are damaged seriously.