中国省际水资源-能源-粮食安全测度及其时空演变

Measurement and temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of provincial water-energy-food security in China

以中国30个省级行政区为研究对象,构建了包含水资源安全、能源安全、粮食安全3个层次共30个指标在内的水资源能源粮食安全评价体系,并对30个省级行政区2003—2019年水资源能源粮食安全进行了测度和分析。结果表明:2003—2019年30个省级行政区水资源能源粮食安全整体呈上升趋势;长江经济带沿线省级行政区水资源能源粮食安全值提升显著,具有明显的空间集聚特征;京津冀地区水资源能源粮食安全值较低,主要是由于较高的生活水成本和生态水成本;宁夏、新疆两自治区的高农业化肥施用量和农作物受灾率导致后期安全指数波动明显;各省级行政区之间的能源安全指数差距和粮食安全指数差距较大,反映出目前我国各省级行政区普遍存在资源生产能力和环境治理能力相脱节的问题。

Based on the research object of 30 provinces(municipalities and regions)in China,a comprehensive evaluation index system of water-energy-food security including 30 indices is established.The water-energy-food security in 30 provinces(municipalities and regions)from 2003 to 2019 is measured and analyzed.The results show that the overall security of water-energy-food system in 30 provinces(municipalities and regions)gradually increases from 2003 to 2019.The water-energy-food security in the provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt has significantly increased,exhibiting obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics.The water-energy-food security in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is relatively low due to the higher demands of domestic water and ecological water,while the fluctuation of water-energy-food security in Ningxia and Xinjiang is obvious,which is mainly caused by more application of chemical fertilizer and higher disaster rate of crops.The energy security and food security vary distinctly among provinces(municipalities and regions),which reflects that resource production capacity is generally inconsistent with environmental governance capability.