基于协调发展度的南通市水资源承载状态预警

Early warning of carrying status of water resources in Nantong City based on coordinated development degree

为了有效保障南通市水安全,降低经济社会发展进程中的水资源承载风险,基于社会经济系统与水资源系统之间的动态反馈机制,构建了考虑供水与排污约束的南通市水资源社会经济生态环境系统动力学模型;选取协调发展度为预警指标,提出了综合考虑预警指标预测值和指标下一年变化趋势的警情确定方法。预警结果显示,南通市目前的发展模式在前期取得了良好的成果,但随着时间的推移,水资源承载状态由Ⅳ级预警上升为Ⅲ级预警,水资源承载状态变差,需及时调整发展方向,未来应进一步提高用水效率并加强对点源污染与面源污染的治理。

In order to effectively ensure the urban water safety and reduce the carrying risk of water resources in the process of economic and social development,based on the dynamic feedback mechanism between the socio-economic system and the water resource system,a dynamic model for“water resources-social economy-ecological environment”system considering the constraints of water supply and sewage discharge is established.By selecting the coordinated development degree as the early warning index,an alarm determination method comprehensively considering the predicted value of the early warning index and the change trend of the index in the next year is proposed.Taking Nantong as the research object,the results show that the current development mode has achieved good results in the early stage.However,with the elapse of time,the carrying status of water resources will be upgraded from levelⅣto levelⅢ,it will be getting worse,and the development direction needs to be adjusted in time.In the future,the water use efficiency should be further improved and the governance of point source pollution and non-point source pollution should be strengthened in Nantong City.