买方市场还是卖方市场:政府效能、国家汲取能力和PPP引资

Buyer’s Market or Seller’s Market:Governance,National Absorption Capacity and PPP Investment

政府治理对经济增长的影响一直是学术界的研究重点,但对政府治理和项目投资关系的研究还尚显不足。本文基于政府—市场—环境三足鼎立理论,聚焦政府,利用PPI数据库1990—2017年109个发展中国家的PPP项目投资数据,研究了政府效能对PPP引资的直接影响,以及国家汲取能力对政府效能和PPP引资之间关系的调节效应。负二项回归的实证结果表明:在发展中国家,政府效能与PPP引资存在“倒U形”关系。在政府效能较低时,政府发起的PPP项目面临无人问津的窘境,PPP市场呈现买方市场。在政府效能较高时,PPP项目会供不应求,PPP市场转为卖方市场。进一步研究因果机制发现,国家汲取能力会负向调节政府效能与PPP引资之间的正向关系,税收和债务汲取能力是PPP引资的替代工具,对PPP存在挤出效应。强汲取能力的国家更倾向于自主提供公共服务,从而导致政府效能对PPP引资的边际效用递减。本研究结论为各国改善PPP营商环境提供了政策启示。

The influence of governance on economic growth has always been the focus of academic research,but the research on the relationship between governance and project investment is still insufficient.Based on the tripod of government,market and environment,this paper focuses on the government.Exploiting a panel data set on PPP investment of 109 developing countries in the PPI database from 1990 to 2017,we address the impact of governance on PPP investment.In addition,we find the moderating effect of national absorption capacity on the relationship between government efficiency and willingness of PPP investment.The empirical results of negative binomial regression show that there is a significant positive correlation between government effectiveness and PPP investment in developing countries,and there is an“inverted U-shaped”relationship between the two.When government efficiency is low,low quality PPP projects are not sold,and the PPP market presents a buyer’s market.When the level of government efficiency is high,the supply of high-quality PPP projects will exceed the demand,and PPP cooperation will be a seller’s market.In the further study on the causal mechanism,we find that national absorption capacity will negatively regulate the positive relationship between government efficiency and PPP investment.Tax and debt absorption capacity are the alternative tools of PPP investment,and there is crowding out effect.Countries with strong absorption capacity are more inclined to provide public services independently,which leads to the diminishing marginal utility of government efficiency on PPP investment.These findings provide policy implications for countries to improve PPP business environment.