外需冲击、需求转化与企业资产再配置——来自中国制造业的证据

External Demand Shock,Demand Transformation and Asset Reallocation of Enterprise——Evidence from Chinese Listed Manufacturing Companies

国内外市场的需求转化机制和资产再配置机制,是检验新时期中国制造业是否具备适应国内外市场冲击的韧性和市场有效性的关键问题。本文选取2004—2020年中国制造业上市公司数据,构建需求转化方程与资产配置方程,对国外需求冲击下的需求转化及资产再配置过程进行了实证检验。结果显示,在国外需求萎缩冲击下国外需求向国内需求的转化能力是有限的,而内需拉动并未能有效促进企业进行资产再配置。同时,国外需求的扩张冲击与萎缩冲击对资产再配置的作用机制具有显著的非对称性。研究成果表明,外需萎缩虽然有激发内需市场潜力的作用,但化解能力有限,应兼顾国内外市场,以内循环重塑外循环;依靠市场力量未能完全有效地促进资产再配置,因此应将产业政策作为市场失灵的重要补充。

The dual circulation interactive transformation mechanism of domestic and foreign markets and the marketbased asset reallocation mechanism are the key issues to test whether China’s manufacturing industry has the resilience and market effectiveness to adapt to the domestic and foreign market shocks in the new era.Based on the data of China’s manufacturing listed companies from 2004 to 2020,this paper constructs the demand transformation equation,the incremental equation and the stock equation of asset allocation,and makes an empirical test on the process of demand transformation and asset reallocation under the impact of foreign demand.The results show that under the impact of shrinking foreign demand,the transformation ability of foreign demand to domestic demand is limited,while domestic demand does not effectively promote the asset reallocation of enterprises.At the same time,the expansion impact and contraction impact of foreign demand have significant asymmetry on the mechanism of asset reallocation. The above research results show that although the contraction of external demand can stimulate the market potential of domestic demand,the ability to resolve it is limited.Therefore,we should take into account the domestic and foreign markets,and reshape the external circulation through internal circulation.Relying on market forces can not fully and effectively promote asset reallocation,so industrial policy should be taken as an important supplement to the failure of market mechanism.