基于灰色预测模型的“非正常上访”趋势预测分析

Forecast and analysis of“abnormal petitions”trend based on gray prediction model

“非正常上访”是当前社会矛盾最为集中的表现形式,也是社会矛盾较为激烈的表达方式,不仅弱化了基层政府的权威性,也影响了基层社会的稳定和经济发展.对“非正常上访”趋势进行有效预测,是实现社会矛盾源头治理的有效手段,是预防社会矛盾的首要条件,是提升预防性政府治理效能的必然要求.通过灰色预测模型GM(1,1)可以判断出X市在2021年、2022年集体访呈下降趋势,而越级访、重复访则呈上升趋势.

"Abnormal petitions"are the most concentrated manifestation of current social contradictions,as well as a more intense expression of social contradictions.It not only weakens the authority of the local government,but also affects the stability and economic development of the society.Effectively predicting the trend of"abnormal petitions"is an effective means to achieve the governance of the source of social contradictions,the primary condition for preventing social contradictions,and the inevitable requirement for improving the effectiveness of preventive government governance.Through the gray prediction model GM(1,1),it can be judged that the group petitions in city X will show a downward trend in 2021 and 2022,while the leapfrog and repeated petitions will show an upward trend.