基于STIRPAT模型的浙江省碳排放峰值预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Peak Carbon Emissions in Zhejiang Province Based on Stirpat Model

为应对全球气候变暖问题,我国提出2030年前实现碳达峰的目标。为探究该目标实现的可达性,以浙江省为例,充分考虑人口、人均GDP、碳排放强度、能源消耗强度、能源结构、产业结构等因素对碳排放的影响,建立了修正的STIRPAT模型,经过实证分析发现该模型精确度良好,R^(2)值达到0.982,能够很好地预测未来浙江省的碳排放。设定三种情景对浙江省二氧化碳排放峰值时间进行预测,结果表明:基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下浙江省均能在2030年前实现碳达峰目标。通过分析模型系数发现人口、能源结构、人均GDP是影响浙江省碳减排的主要因素。

In response to the issue of global warming,China has proposed an ambitious goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030.In order to explore the accessibility of this goal,taking Zhejiang Province as an example,this research fully considers the impact of population,per capita GDP,carbon emission intensity,energy intensity,energy structure and industrial structure factors on carbon emissions,and establishes an extended STIRPAT model.The empirical analysis found that the accuracy of the model is good,and the R2 value reaches 0.982,which can predict the future carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province well.Three scenarios were set up to predict the peak time of carbon dioxide emissions in Zhejiang Province.The study found that Zhejiang Province could achieve the carbon peak target by 2030 under the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario.The analysis of model coefficients found that population,energy structure,and GDP per capita are important factors affecting carbon emission reduction in Zhejiang Province.